Germany expects a lot from its new government. Not because the new leadership has managed to convince of its capabilities. Nor because the previous one failed. But because after 16 years of the “Merkel era”, a period of consolidation of Germany’s stability and leadership, the country needs a dynamic restart if it is to maintain its position. The challenges facing the three-party government – the first in 72 years – are at least commensurate with the expectations it has created with the content of its Program Agreement.
During the presentation of the Agreement, the leader of the Liberals (FDP) and probably the next Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, referring to some of the points of government policy in the coming years, spoke of a “huge demand” from the country and the government. . It is certain that he meant it positively, after all, he praised the “strong” next chancellor Olaf Soltz. Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens tried to give the image of a group not only with cohesion, but also with a long-term horizon. But the truth is that the new partners, when they talk about citizenship allowance, basic child allowance, or capitalized pension, probably mean very different things to each other.
With their Program Agreement, the three parties are theoretically putting the country on a trajectory to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, while at the same time announcing that 10 million workers will see an increase in their wages and businessmen big exemptions in their taxes. They commit not to impose new taxes and to increase the minimum wage to 12 euros / hour. But before all this, before the new government puts forward the realization of its positive agenda, it must cross the “mountain” called the pandemic, which does not fit periods of grace or restraint between partners.
In this area, the new governing coalition is in danger of failing before it even comes to power. Last Tuesday, outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel called on the parties to approve a two-week general lockdown, under the weight of near-daily record cases and the grim situation in pressured hospitals. The “traffic light” refused, however, preferring to leave the “hot potato” for later. Everything that is written in the government program “will not be worth anything if Christmas is celebrated in lockdown and with thousands of dead”, summarizes the Süddeutsche Zeitung, indirectly referring to the different views of the government partners on the issue e.g. of compulsory vaccination against Covid-19.
In the run-up to the election, the FDP took a very dangerous approach to the views of the negative on the issue of dealing with the pandemic – against restrictions, against compulsory vaccination. But the time of truth is coming soon for everyone and, as SZ characteristically states, “patience is now a rare good”.
In an interview published in Saturday’s issue of Der Spiegel magazine, Christian Lindner reiterated that compulsion “interferes with the individual’s freedom of self-determination”, but at the same time implies that it is possible to change his attitude, as he adds: freedom does not mean the absence of limits “. However, he remains adamant about the possibility of a new lockdown, stressing that “memories are fresh from the social and economic damage caused.”
“They set a term and came to an end,” writes Werner Bartens, a doctor-analyst at Zidojce Zeitung. It notes “a huge gap between the general expectation of a new government and the measures actually announced” to tackle the pandemic. “The decisions made are like announcing after floods that more swimming instructors will be hired and some life jackets will be handed out,” he said, adding that the FDP leader was particularly upset when it came to taking action. “The coronavirus is not interested in whether Germany is currently in the process of moving from one government to another,” he warns.
The Tagesspiegel newspaper sees “clear goals” but a “clearly wrong start” and explains that the current situation with the pandemic made it very early on that “any agreement, any conciliation, can be surpassed in reality”, as “in the final analysis, “Everything depends on the policy that is actually pursued and the crisis management – and that is exactly what the start of the government failed to do.” According to the newspaper, the three government partners had to announce early on that they would tighten the measures for the pandemic. “The SPD and the Greens have greatly underestimated the situation and the FDP remains committed to the theorem of personal responsibility, which it relied on while it was in opposition,” the Berlin-based newspaper wrote. After all, it was only yesterday that Robert Habeck stated with confidence that no stricter measures are needed to stem the fourth wave of the pandemic, contrary to the consensus of scientists.
The new government’s economic program does not even seem to pass the exams. “The progress that the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals are preaching is accurate,” said the financial newspaper Handelsblatt, referring specifically to the new Minister for Economy and Climate Policy, Robert Hubbek, who had claimed the finance ministry to the end. “Robert Habeck will need to record successes, from restructuring German industry to climate neutrality, and at the same time explaining to his party and activists why he is not promoting climate protection in a more radical way,” the paper predicts. In addition, the leader of the Greens is already discounting that in four years he will claim the chancellery against Olaf Solz, “so he can not afford to displease industry and small and medium enterprises.” At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is called upon to find a way to finance all the ambitious center-left projects: 400,000 publicly funded apartments, a share pension, a bonus for health workers. It remains to be seen how … socialist Christian Lindner wants or can look.
The first samples, however, do not show anything like that. In an interview with Spiegel, Mr Lindner said: “The European Recovery Fund was an ‘appropriate but isolated response to a state of emergency, but it should not be a permanent architecture’. While the fiscal states of the EU member states “should not drag the ECB”, he added, referring to the pressure of inflation and possible new decisions of the Fed on interest rates. “Everyone in Europe has an interest in ensuring the sustainability of public finances,” he insisted. In the same vein, he warned that Germany “can not follow the advice of those who want to undermine the Stability Pact.”
The government program for the European Union seems very ambitious. Partners want more Europe, a European Constitution that will make the EU a “federal European state”, with a European electoral law, with supranational lists of candidates, with a system of “leading candidates”, with the abolition of the principle of unanimity in foreign policy, with a “real minister” EU Foreign Affairs “.
In Brussels, most of them are considered impossible.
Cracks are already visible
Many, of course, the Welt newspaper points out from its own point of view, will depend on the persons who will eventually take over the ministries. And here, the first samples are rather pessimistic. Apart from the … fight to the end for the Ministry of Finance between Christian Lindner and Robert Hubek, with the former setting it as a condition for his party’s participation in the government, the Program Agreement hid another surprise: with a legal trick, the next government will have, more or less, two vice-chancellors. Traditionally, the role belongs to the second partner, so to the Greens, and will be taken over by Robert Hubeck. But Mr Lindner will also be deputy chancellor – even if that means virtually nothing.
Meanwhile, internal “stabbings” of the Greens were revealed, with the two wings of the party, “left” and “realist”, quarreling over the division of the ministries.
Interestingly, Spiegel already sees the first cracks in the governing coalition, even predicting that the SPD’s problems will come mainly from the ideologically closer Greens, as the FDP, according to opinion polls, won the division.
Some believed that the traffic light would be an SPD – Green coalition with … touches of market economy. Instead, however, the Program Agreement shows rather an SPD-FDP alliance with … a green touch.
And if the SPD is satisfied that it unexpectedly found itself in charge of the chancellery and the Liberals are happy that no new taxes will be imposed, the Greens will need much more to justify their participation in government.
And these in Germany are usually expensive.
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