Over the past two weeks, the BRICS, G7 and NATO summits have been held. The two summits that took place in Europe consolidated the transatlantic alliance and the unity of the West around Ukraine’s support and Russia’s threat to European security.
The new strategic concept approved by NATO gave new meaning to the organization, with Russia as the imminent and main threat, and China as a growing strategic challenge. Differences and disagreements still remain to be resolved within the framework of the alliance – particularly on where the “strategic autonomy” of the European Union has ended up –, but it is evident that the administration of President Joe Biden has managed to reverse the misalignments caused by Donald Trump in its relationship with its allies, restore ties with them and attract Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand with a view to an eventual confrontation with China in the Indo-Pacific.
In short, with the completion of the two summits, Washington achieved articulation with the Western bloc and made an effort to incorporate new allies.
Meanwhile, in other parts of the planet, the emerging powers continued to advance in the articulation of an alternative bloc. In addition to questioning NATO for its role in generating the crisis in Ukraine by Russia, China added its criticism of the organization, while – in the context of growing strategic convergence between the two countries – the Eurasian institutional framework was consolidated.
Not only for the role of the Belt and Road Initiative, driven by China, but also for its harmonization with the Eurasian Economic Union, the increasing centrality of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at the regional level, the reaffirmation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, driven by by Russia and the most recent meeting of the Caspian Council which includes Iran.
We have followed these processes in detail in two books, “Eurasia y América Latina en un Mundo Multipolar”, from 2019 (later translated into Russian) and, more recently, in “Guerra y Transición Global, ¿Cómo se Gestó la Guerra en Ucrania y cómo nos Afecta?”, which was published recently.
The watershed of the Ukrainian war and the boomerang effect of Western sanctions against Russia on the international economy show not only a turning point in the process of transitioning the international system to a new configuration of world power relations, but also the decanting of trends defined in the conformation of blocks in dispute for global dominance.
However, the formation of these blocs also gives rise to the need to add allies and partners in the global South. Thus, the Brics group is being strengthened and reactivated, focusing on issues of economic cooperation, generating free trade agreements and, at the initiative of Russia, deepening a process of “de-dollarization” of emerging economies, with incipient advances in Eurasia. Added to this is the expansion of the group with the incorporation of Argentina, Iran and other aspirants.
Together, these complex processes raise questions about the non-alignment of some actors (India, ASEAN) in the eventual confrontation between blocks, and about the peripheralization of others (Africa, part of Latin America) under the joint impact of the threats of a crisis. food and energy, rising inflation and an eventual economic recession in the face of a growing confrontation between blocs.
The current counterpoint between the G7 and NATO, on the one hand, and the Eurasian actors and the BRICS, on the other, does not constitute an encouraging prognosis for world peace and stability. The Western effort to exclude Russia from the upcoming G20 meeting in Indonesia does not bode well for global governance either.
* Text originally published in Clarin de Argentina
* Spanish translation by Giulia Gaspar
