The 76-year-old leader of Brazil’s left, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has 47% of the vote, compared to 29% for the 67-year-old current far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil’s former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains, reduced by one point, his wide gap with current head of state Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the October 2 presidential election, according to a rolling poll published Thursday by the reporting institute Datafolha.
The leader of the Brazilian left, 76, has 47% of voter intentions compared to 29% for the current far-right president, 67 (their figures were 47 and 28% respectively in the previous poll, in June).
If the contest were held yesterday, the former president (2003-2010) would win with 53% of valid votes, avoiding a runoff that would be required if none of the candidates received more than 50% of valid votes, Datafolia noted.
Mr. Bolsonaro, who increased his percentage by just one point, does not appear to be benefiting for the time being from the social spending approved by the Brazilian parliament two weeks ago.
Datafolia notes, however, that the far-right head of state won three points among the poorest voters (Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 23%) and six points among women (Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 27%).
Two months before the crucial contest, in an extremely polarized climate, the other candidates are once again limited to single-digit percentages, the center-left Cirou Gomes at 8% and the center-right senator Simone Tembet at 2%.
If a runoff is held on October 30, Lula will win with 55% to the outgoing president’s 35%. This difference of 20 points is, however, reduced from the 29 recorded in December by the institute.
The poll was conducted on a representative sample of 2,556 voters on July 27 and 28 and the margin of statistical error is ±2%.
For political analyst Adrianou Lourenou of the Prospectiva consulting firm, the status quo shown by the poll shows that “the voters of Lula and Bolsonaro are probably convinced.”
In his view, the social measures announced by the government and providing for emergency spending may allow “to reduce the gap”, but closing the gap “is not expected to be enough” to reverse the wind in the Brazilian political scene.
This, he warns, raises the risk that “the questioning of the electoral system and institutions” by Mr. Bolsonaro will intensify.
Ten days ago, the far-right politician, nostalgic for the era of the military dictatorship, once again criticized the Brazilian electoral system in front of dozens of parliamentarians, which caused a scandal.
In recent months Mr Bolsonaro, who was elected in 2018, has stepped up his attacks on the electronic voting system, which was adopted in 1996, appearing to prepare the ground according to analysts and critics to challenge the result if he loses. .
RES-EMP
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