Gustavo Petro assumes the presidency of Colombia this Sunday (7) with high expectations, as indicated by his popularity, majority in both Houses of Congress and a street party organized for 100,000 people in Bogotá. But the scenario for the country’s first left-wing president, who defeated populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round of elections in June, promises to be thorny.
Colombian GDP, which grew 10.6% last year, is expected to perform worse this year, with a growth forecast of 6.5%. Inflation, which was 3.2% a year in 2018, when Iván Duque was elected, reached the current 9.6%, and poverty increased from 36% to 42.5% of the population.
The economy, then, is the main concern of voters (34%), followed by corruption (23%), according to a survey by the Invamer institute. What comforts Petro is that the survey indicates that he will take over with the approval of 64% of Colombians (20 percentage points more than he had in February, at the beginning of the election campaign) and disapproval of 22%. He had never been so highly rated: when he was mayor of Bogotá, the highest he reached was 59% popularity.
Duque, on the other hand, leaves the position beloved by less than 20%, with a government worn out by the impact of the Covid pandemic, by two waves of protests —2019 and 2021— and by the increase in violence, which his hardline policies failed to combat.
Petro’s inauguration will have concerts by local artists, such as the band Aterciopelados, the group of pipers from San Jacinto and the singer Edson Velandia. “Every square and every little square in downtown Bogotá will have an explosion of culture and joy,” tweeted the president-elect. Among the guests will be heads of state of Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay, Panama, Honduras, Costa Rica and Argentina. King Felipe VI, who represents Spain in almost every possession in Latin America, is also expected to travel; the US will send Samantha Power, administrator of Usaid, and Brazil, Chancellor Carlos França.
The Invamer poll shows that most Colombians approved of the way Petro has approached the center and even the right in recent weeks. Meetings with figures such as former caudillo Álvaro Uribe served to show someone conciliatory and willing to talk to the opposition. “We are seeing a much less polarizing leader than during the campaign. He sent messages of unity, listened to old adversaries and set in motion a pending social agenda”, says political scientist Eugenie Richard, from the Externado University of Colombia.
With this initial conciliatory impetus, the leftist managed to secure alliances to have a majority in both houses of Congress, after many conversations between leaders of the Historic Pact, his coalition, and the other forces.
Agreements were signed with Aliança Verde, Liberal, Aliança Social Independente, Partido da U (of ex-president Juan Manuel Santos) and Comuns (political arm of the demobilized former FARC guerrillas). Along with the support of the bench that corresponds to the quotas of indigenous and Afro-Colombians, the Petrist base in the Senate will have 63 of the 108 seats; in the Chamber, 110 of the 188 parliamentarians.
Police Reform, Restorative Justice and Venezuela
The length of this honeymoon with society and with the main centre, centre-left and left parties, however, will be under constant scrutiny. “Expectations are very high, and it would be better if they were moderate, because change takes time,” says political scientist Alvaro Duque. “Petro should make that clear. Promising a quick transformation and not delivering it will frustrate the population, which ends up making people discouraged with democracy itself.”
The focus will also be on promises of a change in the economic and productive matrix, a reform of the Justice system, the reopening of peace negotiations with the ELN (National Liberation Army) and a change in focus to try to reduce the violence linked to factions that live of drug trafficking.
In this last sector, the president-elect’s proposals are ambitious, with less attention to the punitive aspect and greater emphasis on social, rural policies and the gradual implementation of reparatory justice – including even “social forgiveness” to alleviate penalties.
One of the topics that Petro will have to address initially is the rapprochement with Venezuela. Iván Duque broke with Caracas to recognize self-proclaimed opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president, but Petro has already declared that this will change, with legitimacy given to dictator Nicolás Maduro.
The first step, he announced, will be the reopening of the embassies in both countries and the borders, which remain closed — the population of the region has resorted to the so-called “trochas”, clandestine paths where smugglers and drug traffickers also transit. The situation of the 2.5 million Venezuelans in the country is also an urgent issue.
The trajectory of Petro, a former guerrilla fighter, means that he has come under pressure similar to that of the Chilean Gabriel Boric from the more radical left and those who demonstrated on the streets in 2019. brutally repressed recent acts—and for the release of those detained in the protests, considered political prisoners.
In recent weeks, the leftist has appointed a moderate, gender-parity ministry. The economy will be in charge of José Antonio Ocampo, an academic from Harvard and Yale who pleased the market. Cecilia López was in charge of the challenge of agrarian reform, one of the pillars of the government plan and article approved by the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC. The idea is to base it not on expropriations, but on increasing taxes on non-productive lands.
Foreign Affairs will be in charge of conservative Álvaro Leyva, while progressive Alejandro Gaviria will assume the Education portfolio. There are women at the head of the ministries of Health (Carolina Corcho Mejía), Agriculture (López), Environment (Susana Muhamad) and Culture (Patricia Ariza). But, until this Saturday (6), more than ten appointments were missing, which demonstrates the difficulty of closing negotiations with the allies.
Petro’s deputy, Francia Márquez, who helped catapult him to power, will also be minister of equality and women. For the ambassador to the UN, Petro appointed Leonor Zalabata Torres, an indigenous of the Arahuaca ethnic group. And the minister who has been causing the most controversy is Iván Velázquez, of Defense, known for having denounced ties between political and business sectors with paramilitaries and for being critical of the Armed Forces’ actions in fighting the guerrillas.
Human rights organizations praised the nomination. “His fight against corruption in the army was heroic. One of the big problems facing the new government is the violation of human rights that surrounds the work of the Armed Forces,” says Juan Pappier, Human Rights Watch’s country representative.
Official photo was taken in a symbolic location
Petro took his official photo on Friday (5), in Caños Cristales, in the La Macarena mountain range, in the department of Meta, which has been heavily impacted by the armed conflict in Colombia. There, a river colored by aquatic plants has become a tourist spot again, after a long time without visits due to the presence of the FARC.
The innovation of the presidential photo in a symbolic location in the country imitates the Chilean Gabriel Boric, who took his picture with the Pacific Ocean in the background. Petro also participated in a symbolic swearing-in ceremony in the Santa Marta mountain range, where indigenous people from four ethnic groups live — Koguis, Arhuacos, Wiwas and Kankuamo.
