The declaration went unnoticed in Brazil, but it will certainly go down in European history. On Friday (19), Emmanuel Macron linked the “devastating climate cataclysms” to the “war that is knocking at our doors”. He prepared the French to “pay the price for freedom and values” this winter.
Europe has gone through the summer of all anguish. The lands of the Mediterranean were swept by winds of unprecedented violence, as fires reached close to capitals such as Lisbon and devastated forests and agricultural regions. All temperature records were broken, forcing vulnerable populations to lock themselves at home for days in a row and start a new confinement, this time climatic. The story of the beluga, the marine animal of the polar world found adrift on the River Seine, has become the fantastical tale of a society stunned by a summer unlike any other.
The effects of global warming have left Europe even more vulnerable to the breakdown of Eurasia’s quasi-century-old energy arrangement. The heat forced French authorities to cut nuclear reactor output by half. The drought of the Danube and the Rhine, the most important rivers for European river trade, became an additional obstacle to the increase of coal and diesel imports by Germany.
Desperate with the prospect of blackouts in industries and homes, European authorities began to implement all kinds of measures to reduce energy consumption. Spain, for example, banned the wearing of ties in public buildings and imposed limits on the use of air conditioning by merchants.
These efforts have not changed the forecast that electricity bills will increase by up to 50% in the coming months. European governments must bury fortunes in subsidies and, ironically, abolish environmental restrictions to prevent social chaos. Measures such as restricting soy imports linked to deforestation, which were aimed at Brazil, were shelved until further notice.
The panic of bureaucrats is shared by the population. Bloomberg reported that internet searches for “wood oven” have skyrocketed in Germany in recent weeks. An Italian ice cream man’s viral protest over his electricity bill is far from anodyne. It was small revolts against a simple tax on carbon dioxide emissions that triggered the “yellow vests” in France.
Political disorder exacerbates the energy impasse. The German government seems paralyzed by the collapse of its economic model based on exports to China and imports of energy from Russia.
Macron saw in Germany’s hesitations an opportunity for France to become Europe’s leading geopolitical player, but his governance was shaken by a surprise defeat in legislative elections.
The bloc’s third strength since Brexit, Italy is preparing for a new era of unpredictability and folklore with the imminent rise to power of yet another subgroup of its extreme right. From every possible angle, Europe is preparing to live through the most difficult months in its recent history.
