Today, in addition to the ongoing proxy conflict between NATO and Russia on Ukrainian territory, the broader picture points to rising tensions between the US and China in the struggle for global hegemony.
This trend poses challenges for Brazil, which is in the American hemisphere, under the direct geopolitical influence of the “hegemon”, but whose economy increasingly depends on trade relations with China. A framework of risks and opportunities that demand insight and dexterity in the conduct of foreign policy for the defense of the national interest.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared at a conference at George Washington University that China represents the most serious long-term challenge to the international order: it would be the country that not only intends to reform that order but also has the power resources to do so. .
The war in Ukraine itself might not have occurred if Russia were not strengthened due to the strategic partnership signed with China, which works as a fundamental vector for Eurasian economic and logistical integration, especially the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative).
In this scenario, the challenge for Brazil is to resume the common thread of its active and haughty foreign policy, avoiding automatic geopolitical alignments with powers or blocs, based on an ecumenical peace and development agenda from the perspective of the Global South, privileging dialogue with South America and Latin America to achieve a collective regional strategy, through the rescue of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) and the consolidation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac).
Prioritize Latin America and especially South America
Brazil, due to its economic, territorial and population dimensions, paraphrasing Paulo Nogueira Batista Júnior, does not fit in anyone’s backyard, but any strategy must consider that the country alone has little room for manoeuvre, given that its power resources are relatively scarce.
A collective South American and Latin American strategy increases bargaining and bargaining power.
The great Brazilian geopolitical game unfolds the projection on its surroundings in concentric circles of influence.
The first and most important circle is the Platinum region, the region with the highest economic and population density in South America.
The second circle includes the other countries of the subcontinent, especially the Amazon biome, and the South Atlantic, through which almost all Brazilian foreign trade passes.
The third circle encompasses all of Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as Antarctica and the west coast of Africa.
The three circles make up the geostrategic environment of Brazil, a region in which its active presence is vital for its development and security, and which should serve as a platform for projection to the world.
At the beginning of this century, among other initiatives, Brazil led the creation of UNASUR and CELAC.
Unasur was an international organization created by the 12 South American states in 2008 with the aim of, among others, articulating the actions of different countries in the various fields of public policies, and should function as a dense instrument of governance of this bioceanic regional space.
Celac, created later in 2010, was also promoted by Brazil with the holding in Salvador, in 2008, of the first autonomous summit of Latin American and Caribbean countries, without the tutelage of Anglo-Saxons and Iberians. Its vocation is political consultation and cooperation for development.
The abandonment of Unasur and Celac by the Bolsonaro government meant a setback for Brazilian foreign policy.
Unasur and Celac were hit by an adverse psychological campaign about an alleged Union of Socialist Republics of Latin America (Ursal) – a huge nonsense that went viral with fake news.
This setback was not an isolated event.
There was the subordination of foreign policy to a radical ideological Americanism of the extreme right –Trumpism– that compromises the dialogue with the current US government, and the abasement of Itamaraty, an agency that has always functioned as a reference of bureaucratic excellence for the Brazilian civil administration.
Brazil is essential for successful integration as it is a multi-vector in the regional space: the regional project is articulated with the Brazilian national objective of consolidating its internal territorial integration; it makes possible potential synergies between national systems in all spheres (productive, commercial, logistics, etc.) associating access to the Pacific, through interoceanic corridors, with the Brazilian march to the west; favors the establishment of a regional strategic-military doctrine that advanced in the South American Defense Council, fundamental for the control of the vital oceanic environment of the great South American “stone raft”, the security of the extensive Brazilian land border and cooperation in around the sustainable development of the Amazon.
However, the eventual reappointment of the current president will keep the country as a pariah, at the lowest point of its international reputation, as a problem for the world and not as a carrier of solutions.
Only internationally respected leadership, tested in the art of politics and administration, will be able to make the desired difference and take advantage of the regional conjuncture favorable to the resumption of integration projects.
