BBC: What are the post-mobilization Russia-Ukraine force correlations – Table

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60-year-old retirees are also returning – What does conscription mean in practice? Are Russian forces stronger than Ukrainian forces? Is Putin threatening escalation, or even nuclear war?

The Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization to bolster his troops in Ukraine after major military setbacks in the northeast this month. In an address to the Russian nation, Putin said Russia was under immediate threat of “disintegration” by Western powers backing the Kiev government.

He also warned NATO that Russia – a nuclear power – could use any weapons in its arsenal against what he called Western “nuclear blackmail”.

His message came a day after Russian leaders in four regions of eastern and southern Ukraine announced plans for so-called referendums – starting this week – on joining Russia. Crimea was annexed by Russia after such a move in 2014.

What does conscription actually mean?

Russia plans to call up about 300,000 reservists – that is, people with military training who, as Vladimir Putin has pointed out, have special skills needed in the conflict in Ukraine. Many reservist officers, including some over 60 years of age, who had been retired will be included.

Russia could theoretically mobilize around 25 million Russians for military service, but this is not yet under consideration. Both President Putin and the Minister of Defense
Sergei Shoigu emphasized that conscripts will not be sent to fight in Ukraine.

Mr. Shoigu said the extra troops were to defend a front line stretching about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles).

The mobilization will stretch for months – and Mr Putin has previously said Russia is ready for a long-term battle. The Reuters news agency reports that it is
Russia’s first mobilization since World War II, but the Kremlin sent thousands of conscripts to fight in Afghanistan in the 1980s and later in Chechnya and the North Caucasus.

Many poorly trained conscripts have been killed in these costly wars, and this time the Kremlin seems determined to avoid fueling anti-war sentiment.

Are Russian forces stronger than Ukrainian forces?

The Russian military is numerically superior to the Ukrainian military, but Ukraine’s battlefield tactics and western precision weapons have narrowed that gap.

Russia’s initial invasion force in February numbered about 190,000 troops, in addition to the thousands of pro-Russian fighters in the Donbas region.

The Kremlin launched a massive recruitment drive, offering big financial incentives. Thus additional troops were recruited, especially from impoverished regions of Siberia and the Caucasus, including experienced Chechen fighters.

Russia normally has a limit of just over a million military personnel and almost 900,000 civil servants – but last month President Putin signed a decree to hire 137,000 more.

Currently, Russian men aged 18-27 are required to do military service, usually for one year, but there are many exemptions for medical reasons or for students.

Russia initially denied sending conscripts to Ukraine, but several officers were disciplined after cases of conscripts being forced to sign contracts came to light. President Putin then insisted that no conscripts would be sent into combat.

Before the invasion, the number of Ukrainian soldiers was much smaller – about 196,600 active soldiers. But Kyiv ordered mass conscription, which boosted those numbers.

Why has the data changed now?

Ukraine’s major counteroffensive in the northern Kharkiv region has put the Kremlin’s “backs against the wall”, Western analysts and politicians say – which explains Vladimir Putin’s latest move.

Defense Minister Shoigu gave a new death toll on Wednesday – 5,937 dead Russian soldiers. But that figure is still well below the estimate of 25,000 dead given by the UK Ministry of Defense in June, while Ukraine claims the number is around 50,000.

It has emerged that Russia is conscripting prisoners to fight as it tries to deal with its heavy losses. In the 1979-1989 war in Afghanistan, the Soviet army lost about 15,000 soldiers.

BBC Russian has evidence that Russian casualties in Ukraine include more than 1,000 elite officers, including many pilots, members of the intelligence services and special forces.

Is Putin threatening escalation, or even nuclear war?

President Putin accused Kiev’s Western backers of “anti-Russian ‘threats'” – and warned that “any threat to Russia’s territorial integrity would be met with whatever weapon the Kremlin deems necessary”.

“Our country also possesses various weapons of mass destruction and, in some categories, more modern than those possessed by NATO countries,” he said. “This is no bluff,” he threatened.

Russia’s military doctrine allows for the use of tactical nuclear weapons if the Russian state is threatened with destruction.

Russia has already used long-range hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, which can fly faster than 6,000 kilometers per hour. But analysts say this weapon has not tipped the scales.

It is noted that if Moscow claims, after the upcoming controversial referendums, that the eastern regions of Ukraine have joined Russia, then it can also claim that Russia itself is under attack by NATO.

Kyiv and Western leaders see the “referendums” as essentially a Russian grab of Ukrainian territory. US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said the “fake referendums” and conscription were signs of Russian weakness.

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