Who benefits and how likely is it that Russia is behind this major event – If not Moscow, then who?
‘Sabotage’ hypothesis advanced to explain spectacular gas pipeline leaks Nord Stream, an action that would no doubt be a complex undertaking, but not at all beyond the reach of a capable army. And such armies are many in the region.
The scenario of random simultaneous failures seems to be set aside today. But the method used remains unknown, as does the alleged perpetrator.
The three leaks, which have been detected since Monday, are located at Baltic Sea, off the Danish island of Bornholm, between southern Sweden and Poland. A zone which has been under surveillance for decades.
“In the past, the USSR stationed spy submarines with special capabilities in the deep sea,” independent military analyst H.I. Sutton recalled on Twitter.
Since then the Baltic countries have sided with NATO. But the spills occurred in international waters, where everyone can move.
“Today the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world. They are based in the Arctic. They would be capable of damaging a pipeline in the Baltic,” assures HI Sutton. However, he considers this scenario “unlikely”.
An elaborate sabotage
The operation requires intervention at a depth of 70 meters. “It’s something big. Damage to two gas pipelines on the seabed is a significant event, so it is possible that the perpetrator is a state,” notes Lion Hirth, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School, indirectly ruling out the possibility of a terrorist or criminal act. .
But a competent army knows how to do it. The zone is “perfectly suited for pocket submarines,” a senior French military official told AFP, adding that there was either the option of sending military divers to plant explosives or a mobile mine or underwater drone.
“The drone is launched from a submarine, which can remain within nautical miles of its target. He leaves the drone-mine he is carrying, which is sailing at a speed of about ten knots, close to the bottom,” he explains. “The target is fixed, so it’s not too complicated.”
On the contrary, the choice of the torpedo, which is more useful on a mobile target, is less likely according to him.
The explosion “corresponded to hundreds of kilograms of TNT”, he clarifies. The Norwegian seismology institute NORSAR, specialized in detecting earthquakes and nuclear explosions, estimates the second explosion at 700 kilograms.
Business without taking responsibility
The governments point to Moscow, which for its part does not rule out “any case” and reminds that the gas leaking from the pipelines belongs to it.
“The Baltic Sea is limited and not very deep, and almost every movement is monitored by coastal states and their warships,” says Julian Pavlak of Hamburg’s Helmut Schmidt University. “Warships and submarines are capable of deploying stealth divers there” as well as remotely piloted underwater vehicles.
But nothing is impossible for an army trained in the art of covert operations.
“This is called a special naval operation. It is not an easy thing, but it is done,” the French military source sums up. “What happened looks like something well coordinated and well prepared.”
It may take time for the truth to emerge reliably. Some analysts observe that the confusion benefits many of the actors in the region.
If not Moscow, then who?
“It remains to be seen who is behind the operation,” adds this military source. “Other countries have an interest in the ‘pipe’ never being able to operate.”
Indeed, Nord Stream 2’s opponents have been numerous for years, the United States being the first. On February 7, shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden had referred to the possibility of “putting an end to it”. Asked what method he would use for an infrastructure under the control of his German allies, he had replied: “I promise you, we will be able to do it.” For the past 24 hours, the relevant video has been circulating widely on social media.
Yesterday, Tuesday, moreover, Poland, Norway and Denmark inaugurated a strategically important gas pipeline that will allow Poles and Europeans to depend less on deliveries from Moscow. “The era of Russian dominance in the gas sector is coming to an end,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at the opening of the pipeline.
At this stage, two things are certain: firstly, the event is connected to the war in Ukraine. “NATO’s naval command and allied warships are preparing for hybrid actions, which include sabotage of critical infrastructure, on the sidelines of the main goal of collective defense,” assures Julian Pavlak.
This then creates additional instability in the European economy. “It’s a brutal reminder of the vulnerability of our energy infrastructure,” says Lion Hirth.
He pre-empts the possibility that the perpetrator is Russia. “If it’s true, it’s quite worrying. This means that Russia (…) is sending the clearest signal it can, that it will no longer deliver gas in the near future.”
Whoever they are, those who attacked Nord Stream also understand that they could also hit other energy infrastructure that serves a Europe thirsty for gas and oil.
RES-EMP
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I am currently a news writer for News Bulletin247 where I mostly cover sports news. I have always been interested in writing and it is something I am very passionate about. In my spare time, I enjoy reading and spending time with my family and friends.
