If it depended on US and UK bookmakers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Belarusian opponent Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the Ukrainian people would be the most likely to win the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize.
The three are the most highly rated according to a survey by the Nicer Odds website, which gathers data from bookmakers. In the case of Zelenski, who leads the list, the odds would be 3/1 – meaning that whoever bets £1 will win £3, with a 25% chance of winning.
Other names aired, although with less possibility, are: Russian opponent Alexei Navalni, UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees), French President Emmanuel Macron, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the Ukrainian newspaper The Kyiv Independent and environmental activist Greta Thunberg.
There are also, but with low stakes, Pope Francis, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, the Black Lives Matter movement and the Palestinian Center for Human Rights.
The Nobel Prize announcement ceremony will be held this Friday (7), in Oslo, the Norwegian capital, at 11 am local time (6 am in BrasÃlia). According to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 343 candidates are in the running for the award this year – of these, 92 are organizations.
This is the second highest number of candidates in the history of the awards – the current record was in 2016, with 376 candidates. The names, however, are not made public and can only be made public after 50 years. Thus, even though the bets for the chosen one take place annually, it is difficult to find accurate projections.
“While certain names appear in speculation about a particular year’s award, this is pure supposition or the fruit of information released by the people behind the nomination,” the committee says.
There are requirements to establish who can make nominations for the award. Among others, members of governments and national assemblies, members of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, and Nobel laureates are allowed to suggest names to the committee.
In the 2021 edition, the names of Greta and the WHO (World Health Organization) – the latter due to the coronavirus pandemic – were much talked about. The award, however, went to journalists Maria Ressa, from the Philippines, and Dmitri Muratov, from Russia, in a message against the deterioration of press freedom around the world.
In 2018, in turn, British bookmakers fanned the names of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and then South Korean president Moon Jae-in as favorites. The award, however, went to Congolese doctor Denis Mukwege and Yazidi activist Nadia Murad, for their efforts against the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war.
Zelensky, before the Ukrainian War broke out in February, was considered a fringe player on the geopolitical scene. Mostly known for a phone call with former President Donald Trump that led to the US leader being impeached, he was a political outsider who played a president on a famous series in the country.
After the Russian invasion, however, he began to participate in important meetings of NATO and the European Union (EU) as a guest — although he had already asked for the country to join both groups — and spoke in parliaments around the world, always in virtual way.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is one of the main opposition names to Belarus dictator Aleksandr Lukachenko. She even ran for President of the country in place of her husband, who had been arrested. Persecuted, she took refuge in Lithuania.
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