A few months ago, a group of defense executives doing business in the United States met with the country’s Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. They expected to hear opportunities for their products in the face of the renewed European arms race due to the Ukrainian War.
According to the account of one of the participants, Austin only spoke about China and scenarios of coercion and confrontation that would require the development of new weapons. He spoke of the reality of the South China Sea, not the Donbass.
Such an emphasis shows how China’s rise as a military power, which has accompanied its political and economic assertiveness since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, is both a calling card for the country envisioned by the Chinese and a source of potential risks. As reaffirmed by the new US national security strategy, released on Wednesday (12), the biggest rival is the Asian colossus.
Xi will be further enthroned this Sunday at the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which will give him an unprecedented third five-year term. Giving a recognizable face to the ever-impersonal communist dictatorship, he has blended his worldview with that of the CP, and the military is no exception.
On the contrary, it is where its apparent successes are least debatable, even if they have not been effectively tested as in the case of the economy, which is dangerously faltering. After all, China hasn’t fought a conflict since its 1979 altercation with Vietnam, and its formative experience was in the civil war won by Mao Tse-tung in 1949, which bequeathed a fractured country.
China’s economic growth, which began to soar in the 2000s, made the leadership understand that military reform was vital to their aspirations, albeit in a somewhat confused way. Its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was a Soviet scrap metal purchased from Ukraine under the guise of setting up a floating casino, in a shady deal made by a Macau tourist agency.
Hardly reformed, he was thrown overboard two months before Xi came to power in November 2012, but only as a technology and training demonstrator.
Ten years later, he and his twin brother Shandong, this one already made in Shanghai, patrol the seas around China. In June, a supercarrier, Fujian, was launched with banners celebrating the beginning of a “Blue Water Navy”, that is, capable of operating far from its ports.
A nuclear-powered model appears to be on the way, and in 2016 the Chinese overtook the Americans in the total number of surface ships.
This shows the strategic obsession of the “middle empire”, by geography a continental power with sea routes susceptible to blockages: 80% of Chinese oil imports pass through the Straits of Malacca (Indonesia/Malaysia) alone. Not to mention trade in a heavily exporting economy.
Indeed, since 2014 Xi has militarized islets and atolls in the South China Sea, the body of water that Beijing says is 85% its own — the UN and neighbors disagree. He established his first foreign military base in Djibouti on the Red Sea and established ports throughout Africa and Asia. They signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, in the Pacific that the US sees under its jurisdiction.
Xi, in his process of strengthening the CP’s role as the center of Chinese life, has created a new military entity within the party, in addition to the powerful Central Military Commission that he presides over and under which he centralized control over 1.5 million members of the Police. People’s Armada — the Chinese PM, which serves as a reserve for the 2 million soldiers of the largest army in the world.
Such moves, supported by the 2015 National Defense Strategy, which called for the reform of the Armed Forces and a growing fusion of civil and military industrial capabilities, were decisive for the US to launch its Cold War 2.0 against Beijing in 2017.
President Joe Biden deepened it from 2021, with the military pact established with the British and Australians and the reinforcement of the Quad, which brings together his US with Australia, Japan and India. Just look at the map to understand the siege in formation. Even NATO, the American-led alliance focused on Russia, has put Beijing on its list of core concerns.
Xi responded by deepening his partnership with Vladimir Putin, including in the military, buying even more fighter jets and conducting joint patrols in the skies and waters of the Pacific. He quietly supports the Russian in the Ukraine War, fearing that the sanctions regime will spill over into him, but there is little doubt what kind of alignment is in the making in the world.
When Xi came to power, there were around 240 operational warheads in his country. Now there are 350 and China has completed its triad — the ability to launch them from land bases, submarines and bombers. The Pentagon said the country wants to reach 1,000 bombs by the end of the decade.
Another aspect facing Xi is technology. Beijing has managed to assemble a fleet that already has around 50 fifth-generation J-20 fighter jets, but still faces problems replacing its Russian engines with local versions. On the other hand, it successfully tested hypersonic weapons, something “quite concerning” according to Secretary Austin.
In 2021, the country overtook the US as the world’s largest investor in research and development: both have about 27% of the sector’s global volume. But that still hasn’t enabled it to make advanced chips, a market dominated precisely by its most acute military headache: Taiwan.
The autonomous island is set to be absorbed into Chinese state politics, and this year the provocative visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has led to an unprecedented military move. But an attack there would trigger a conflict with the Americans, protectors of Taipei, and many doubt Xi’s appetite for that.
Finally, there are some realities standing in the way of the declared plan to be a superpower equivalent to the US by 2049. If Xi intends to have perhaps seven aircraft carrier groups by then, the US already operates 12. Its nuclear arsenal, showy as it is, represents one-fifth of the American — although here the alliance with Putin is a game-changer.
Despite having the second-largest military budget in the world, Xi has kept spending as a percentage of GDP stable in his terms of office: it is at 1.22%. With the drop in economic growth, it will be a problem. In nominal terms, the value is still 3.6 times less than the US expenditure.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
