Sitting in the hall of the British Conservative Party conference in Birmingham last week, my mind wandered to another party conference that is about to begin, in Beijing.
The 20th CCP Congress will be everything the British Conservative Party conference was not: choreographed, disciplined and united in support of an all-powerful leader. Xi Jinping will almost certainly be nominated for a third term as secretary-general — potentially laying the groundwork for him to rule for life.
Whatever your private feelings, party delegates and Chinese media will praise leader Xi.
The contrast with Liz Truss, the new British prime minister, could not be clearer. His party conference was a disaster. Colleagues were outraged, the press was contemptuous and the markets were in turmoil. Her big speech was interrupted by bullies. Delegates traveling to and from the conference were impeded by a railway strike. Truss has been in power for just over a month and there is already speculation that she could be forced out by Christmas.
Seen from Beijing, this all looks like evidence of an argument that Xi himself often makes: “The east is on the rise and the west is on the decline.” In the Chinese leader’s view, one of the main reasons for this historic change is the contrast between the order of the Chinese political system and the chaos of Western liberal democracy.
In the pre-Xi era, the Communist Party line tended to be that liberal democracy was not appropriate for China and that all societies should be allowed to develop in their own way. More recently, however, Beijing has gone on the ideological offensive. It is promoting the idea of ​​a “model China” that the rest of the world could profitably imitate.
Over the years, I’ve heard many Western executives sigh with envy at China’s ability to plan for the long term. Truss and his conservative colleagues admit that building new infrastructure in the UK is difficult. But China has built thousands of miles of new highways and high-speed rail in the last 20 years (and, interestingly, strikes aren’t a big problem on the country’s railways).
In Birmingham, Truss emphasized that his goal was “growth, growth, growth.” This is also something that China knows a little about. As the World Bank notes, “since China began opening up and reforming its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9% a year, and more than 800 million people have been lifted out of poverty.”
The success of the Chinese model should provide the perfect backdrop for Xi to assert his claim to rule in the distant future. But, inconveniently for him, this month’s pivotal congress comes at a time when cracks are beginning to appear in the Chinese model.
One of the arguments often made in favor of Chinese authoritarianism is that it provides political stability, which allows for long-term planning and a predictable business environment. But under Xi, policymaking has become much less predictable.
His determination that the Communist Party must monopolize power has brought him into conflict with some of China’s most innovative and wealth-creating companies. Xi’s policies helped wipe a staggering $2 trillion off the value of Chinese tech stocks. Last month, it was announced that, for the first time since 1990, the Chinese economy is expected to grow more slowly than the rest of Asia.
The frequent lockdowns mandated by Xi’s increasingly controversial Covid zero policy have heightened social tensions and depressed consumer demand. Meanwhile, Xi’s aggressive security policies — in the South China Sea and in Taiwan — have contributed to a sharp deterioration in relations with the US.
That means China is now locked in an intensified trade war with Washington. Xi’s crackdown on Hong Kong caused the exodus of more than 100,000 residents, many of whom chose to live in the hell that is modern Britain.
Meanwhile, the long-predicted crash of the Chinese housing market is finally happening (while the UK built few homes, China built too many). This threatens the corporate and personal wealth and stability of the Chinese financial system.
In a democratic society, a leader with Xi’s dubious record would be open to challenge and overthrow. In China today, however, it is impossible to have an open debate about what Xi got right or wrong. His reappointment this week is mostly a sign of his success in centralizing power and suppressing opposition.
Just to be sure, there was an intensification of repression in the run-up to the congress. Unlike Truss, his speech will not be interrupted by people yelling, “Who voted for this?”
London’s frequent leadership changes make the country look unstable. A further change of prime minister will confirm this impression and be no guarantee that better times are at hand.
The British mess is, however, much less scary and dangerous than the Chinese model. Xi is already the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Tse-tung. He will come out of the party congress with even more authority. But investing more and more power in the hands of a leader whose judgment has already proven erratic is a formula for disaster. Just ask the Russians.
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
