Opinion – Sergio Duarte: The world must remain aware of the enormous nuclear risk in the midst of the Ukrainian War

The so-called “special military operation” launched by Russia against Ukraine has lasted eight months, with no sign of serious negotiations between the parties involved. Armed aggression is clearly prohibited in Article 2 of the United Nations Charter, but the right of veto prevents the Security Council from acting in the absence of any of its five permanent members, one of which is Russia.

Statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have heightened international concern that nuclear weapons will be used in the conflict.

However, although Russian and US defense doctrines, as well as that of NATO, contemplate the use under certain conditions, it does not seem given the extreme circumstances in which the use of these weapons by belligerents would be foreseen. In the version war, Moscow accuses Ukraine — with little credibility — of intending to detonate a “dirty” conventional bomb with high radiation power on its own territory, whose use Kiev would blame Russia for.

There is fear in the West that to reverse military failures Russia will use low-power nuclear weapons, known as non-strategic or tactical, intended for limited-range actions. Other hypotheses, considered more remote, would be a “demonstration” detonation in an uninhabited area, a “counterforce” operation on the battlefield or even an attack against an inhabited center.

In such cases there would undoubtedly be the risk of a nuclear response capable of leading to an escalation and a wider conflagration, certainly catastrophic for both sides, as well as for the rest of the planet. Furthermore, one cannot exclude the occurrence of errors in the evaluation or interpretation of data transmitted by the alert systems on one side or the other, nor that of accidents.

It must be taken into account, however, the existence of a powerful unwritten moral norm, commonly called “nuclear taboo”, which, in case of violation by any country, would bring the reproach of the international community.

Russia’s use of nuclear weapons could lead to the involvement of other countries in supporting Ukraine and increase Moscow’s isolation. The military advantages would be limited in relation to the immense risk inherent in the use of such weapons and most likely Ukraine’s determination to resist and NATO’s decision to sustain its effort would be reinforced.

Reason and common sense do not always govern the actions of individuals, including political leaders and leaders. It is important that the world remains aware of the enormous current nuclear risks and redoubles efforts in favor of an urgent dialogue between the contenders in search of a ceasefire followed by peace negotiations.

Furthermore, the entire international community must vehemently demand compliance with the security and disarmament commitments contained in existing multilateral instruments, as well as their improvement.

Public opinion plays a key role in this effort. Humanity cannot perpetually remain hostage to the unstable and unpredictable balance in the relations between nuclear-armed powers. The only guarantee against the use of nuclear weapons is their complete elimination.