Unemployment drops to 8.7% and reaches 9.5 million

The unemployment rate in Brazil dropped to 8.7% in the third quarter of 2022, reported this Thursday (27) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected 8.7% in the median.

The unemployment rate stood at 9.3% in the second quarter, the most recent in the comparable historical series of the IBGE survey, the Pnad Contínua (Continuous National Household Sample Survey). In the quarter up to August, which is part of another Pnad series, the indicator was at 8.9%.

The number of unemployed, in turn, dropped to 9.5 million in the third quarter. The contingent totaled 10.1 million in the three immediately preceding months.

In official statistics, the unemployed population is made up of people aged 14 or over who are out of work and are still looking for new jobs. Those who do not have a job and are not looking for opportunities are not included in this calculation.

Pnad portrays both the formal and informal labor market. That is, it ranges from jobs with a formal contract and CNPJ to the popular odd jobs.

After the damage caused by the pandemic, the job market was benefited by vaccination against Covid-19. The immunization process allowed the reopening of businesses and the return of the movement of people.

On the eve of the elections, the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL) also sought to heat up the economy with the release of resources, tax cuts and expansion of Auxílio Brasil.

Bolsonaro appears in second place in polls, behind former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The second round of elections is scheduled for next Sunday (30).

The fall in unemployment, as of last year, was accompanied by the creation of job vacancies with lower average wages. Income was weakened in a context of high inflation.

Economists see a chance that the unemployment rate will be closer to 8% by December in Brazil. The final stretch of the year is usually marked by temporary hires due to seasonal demand in sectors such as commerce.

Retail should hire 109,400 temporary workers for Christmas 2022, projected on Wednesday (26) the CNC (National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism). If the prediction is confirmed, it would be the highest number in nine years — or since 2013.

The resumption of the labor market, however, tends to lose momentum in 2023, economists point out. This assessment weighs in on the effect of high interest rates, which challenges productive investments by companies and household consumption.