USA: How midterm elections are shaping the 2024 presidential race

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The election result will have significant implications for the remaining two years of Joe Biden’s presidency and beyond.

The US is holding midterm elections on November 8 for seats in the bicameral Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Congress passes national laws. The House decides which laws are passed, while the Senate can approve or block them, approves presidential appointments and rarely investigates the president.

Understandably, the election result will have significant implications for the remaining two years of Joe Biden’s presidency and beyond.

Who can win?

The Democratic Party has held the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate for the past two years. This has helped President Joe Biden pass the laws he wanted. But Democrats are leading by a narrow margin, which bodes well for a tough fight. Polls show the Republicans likely to win the House of Representatives, but the Democrats the Senate.

Read more: USA – Mid-term elections: Early polls are open – “Bet” on Biden for Congress

Of the 435 seats in Parliament, most are expected to remain with the party that already holds them, with only 30 considered ambivalent.

Urban areas around cities in states like Pennsylvania, California, Ohio and North Carolina will be decisive.

In the Senate, today’s picture is that 4 out of 35 seats are undecided.

The key matchups here involve Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

What impact will the results have?

Midterm elections often serve as a verdict on the president’s performance, and the party in the White House tends to lose seats.

That worries President Biden, whose approval rating has hovered below 50% since last August.

If the Democrats prevail, President Biden will be able to continue to advance his plans on climate change, expand government health programs, protect abortion rights and tighten gun control.

If Republicans take control of either House, they will be able to block these plans.

They will also be able to control investigative committees to end the investigation into the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by supporters of former President Donald Trump – although the investigation is due to be completed by the end of the year.

They may also launch new investigations into issues of other interest, more appealing to conservatives — such as the Chinese business dealings of Joe Biden’s son or the sudden withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

It will be more difficult for Biden to make new appointments, including to the US Supreme Court. Republican dominance would also hamper his foreign policy — particularly on aid to Ukraine.

In return, President Biden could veto and block conservative abortion, immigration and tax laws. The result; Deadlock until the next presidential and parliamentary elections.

How are the midterm elections shaping the 2024 presidential race?

The midterm elections could give us an idea of ​​who the Republican presidential nominee will be in 2024.

If candidates supported by Trump do poorly, it is less likely that he will receive support from the Republican party to run for the presidency again.

In Florida and Texas, Republican governors Ron DeSandis and Greg Abbott are hoping their re-election will allow them to try for the White House.

If Democrats can hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it will give them some confidence as they build their 2024 campaign to re-elect President Biden.

RES-EMP

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