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Everything known so far about the missile strike in Poland

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Who launched the rocket? – NATO armed forces were put on high alert after the explosion in Poland

Rocket explosion killed two people yesterday at Polish village of Sevodov, near the Ukrainian border, on a day when Ukraine was heavily shelled by the Russian military. After hours of doubt and questions about the origin of the missile, with the risk of escalation looming, Warsaw said this afternoon that it was “highly likely” that it was a “sad accident” caused by a Ukrainian missile.

Here is a summary of what has been known so far, 16:20 Greek time.

What happened;

A rocket hit the village of Sewodów in southeastern Poland, about 6 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, yesterday evening, killing two men. News website Gazeta.pl reported that the explosion occurred around 18:00 Greek time at a grain drying facility located near a school.

The strike came as Russia carried out massive missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure throughout the day, leaving millions of homes without power. Russian missiles hit cities across the country, including Lviv (west), near the Polish border.

Poland, which borders Ukraine, is a NATO member and about 10,000 US troops are stationed in the country.

Who launched the rocket?

Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, was immediately viewed as a suspect. But Polish President Andrzej Duda said overnight that there was no hard evidence of who fired the missile, which was “probably Russian-made”, calling it an “isolated” incident.

Early this afternoon, Duda stressed that it was “very likely” that the hit came from Ukrainian anti-missile defenses, a “sad accident” according to him. “Nothing shows that it was a deliberate attack against Poland,” the Polish president added to reporters.

NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this afternoon that NATO has “no evidence” that would allow the deadly explosion in Poland to be attributed to “a deliberate attack” against the country.

“According to our preliminary analysis, the incident was most likely caused by a missile of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft system that was fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missiles,” Stoltenberg added.

US President Joe Biden, from the G20 summit in Bali (Indonesia), had previously considered it “unlikely” that the missile was launched by Russia. “I don’t want to say anything before we finish the investigation, but it’s unlikely, given the trajectory, that (the missile) was fired by Russia — we’ll see though.”

The Kremlin welcomed the “restrained” US response.

Today at noon, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said that Ukraine requested access to the site of yesterday’s explosion in Poland.

What are the consequences?

The explosion raised fears that NATO, which Poland joined in 1999, could be drawn into the war between Russia and Ukraine. Poland is protected by NATO’s collective defense commitment, provided for in Article 5 of its founding treaty, but the NATO response must be measured according to the accidental – as Warsaw now states – or intentional nature of the incident.

An emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors was held this morning to take stock of the situation in Poland. The latter put its armed forces on high alert after the explosion. He also summoned the Russian ambassador for “immediate detailed explanations”, before the Polish head of state spoke of a missile likely fired by Ukrainian defenses.

Who said what?

“Let’s be clear. It’s not Ukraine’s fault,” NATO chief Stoltenberg said.

“Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine. Russia must end this senseless war,” he said, reiterating NATO’s support for Kyiv in its “right to self-defense” and its full solidarity with Poland.

Before Duda’s latest remarks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the missile attack “Russia’s message to the G20 summit” underway in Indonesia.

Russia said it had “nothing to do” with the incident, asserting today that the missile was “undoubtedly” fired by an S-300 defense system of Ukrainian forces.

“High-precision strikes were carried out only on the territory of Ukraine at a distance of more than 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Polish border,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. The debris found in Poland “has been categorically identified by Russian experts (…) as a component of an anti-aircraft guided missile of the S-300 air defense systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” he added.

Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedode said in a statement that the explosion in Poland was the result of the use of Ukrainian air defense systems to “counter Russian missiles”, “Investigations are ongoing, at the moment there is nothing to indicate that it was intentional attack”, the minister added.

The leaders of the G7 major powers (US, France, Germany, UK, Italy, Canada, Japan) had previously held an emergency meeting on the issue on the sidelines of the G20. They expressed their solidarity with Poland, but also asked for caution pending the outcome of the investigation.

RES-EMP

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