Politico headline article: “Erdogan is waging war to save his tomica”

After destroying the Turkish economy and impoverishing the middle class he had supported, Erdogan is now dragging his country into an unnecessary war and manipulating the courts against his opponents, Politico reports.

This is an unscrupulous attempt by Erdogan to cling to power in 2023 – the centenary of the Turkish Republic – and let’s hope he fails, says the article by Paul Taylor.

“Turkey’s presidential election, due to be held on June 23, is arguably the most important – though by no means the fairest – vote in the world this year. It will determine whether this nation of 85 million citizens, at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, continues down the road to becoming an authoritarian, expansionist power or chooses a more liberal, pluralistic path.

For the first time since the AKP, Erdogan’s party, came to power in 2002, there is a serious prospect of political change. Inflation is running at more than 80% a year, the Turkish lira has plummeted against the dollar and the government’s popularity has sunk as economic difficulties have increased.

According to opinion polls, Erdogan – who has been ruling increasingly authoritarian since the constitution change – is in serious political trouble, with the AKP receiving just 30%.

Of course, his response has been characteristically brutal both domestically and internationally.

Despite disagreements from both Washington and Moscow, Erdogan is threatening to send tanks into Syria, trying to drive out Kurdish militias allied with the West in the fight against Islamic State militants.

He seems determined to create a buffer zone on the other side of Turkey’s southern border.”

Threats against Greece

The article continues: “Meanwhile, Turkish president threatens to strike NATO ally, Hellason the occasion of natural gas exploration and the supposed ‘militarization’ of the Greek islands in the Aegean – although the international economic and political cost of any such action makes it highly unlikely.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, Erdogan has turned Turkey into an indispensable mediator between Moscow and Kiev, brokering and hosting talks between the US and Russia. He has also managed to support Ukraine – including with military drone sales – while maintaining trade and energy ties with Russia and without compromising his personal relationship with President Vladimir Putin or incurring the ire of the West.”

Meanwhile, in Turkey, Erdogan has used the judiciary, which is not renowned for its independence, to exclude his most powerful potential opponents.

The article mentions the case of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu – whom it says is a popular figure in the secular center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) who could be a unifying opposition presidential candidate.

With Erdogan’s machinations, he may be barred from running, the article continues.

Of the HDP it says: “More than 100 politicians from the main pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) are also awaiting trial on terrorism charges, which could lead to the party being banned.

The HDP is not part of the six-party opposition alliance, which forms a common electoral platform, ranging from the social democratic left to the liberal center right. However, he could emerge as kingmaker if – as polls suggest – neither the AKP nor the opposition win a majority in parliament.

Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul, himself faced similar judicial harassment before the AKP triumphed in 2002. He was sentenced to a year in prison for reading a purportedly Islamist poem, was barred from running for office and forced to wait before becoming prime minister.

However, it remains to be seen how far he is willing to go in terms of actual military action to play the nationalist card in his re-election bid.”

The article notes: “In 20 years, Erdogan has abandoned his policy of ‘zero problems with neighbors’ and moved into open or latent conflict with Syriathe Hellasthe Israelthe Egyptthe Saudi Arabia and Armenia. But in recent months, he has begun a rapprochement with several of those opponents — in part because the failure of the Turkish-backed Arab Spring uprisings forced him to adjust his foreign policy, but also because he desperately needs Arab and Western capital to to support the economy, which is suffering from his reckless policy of keeping interest rates low.

While public opinion is strongly nationalist in Turkey, a ground invasion of Syria that triggered a US or Russian response, forcing Ankara to back down, could backfire – as could the brute force use of the judiciary to oust the opposition.

On the other hand, a limited cross-border operation with few Turkish casualties could be acceptable to voters, in the same way that regular Israeli strikes in Gaza in retaliation for Palestinian Hamas rocket attacks are considered police operations, not wars. .

The coming months will thus be full of bellicose gestures, mainly to mark the 100th anniversary of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s founding of a modern, secular republic over the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.”

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