On Friday, February 24, it was one year since her invasion of Russia in Ukraine. A year that drastically changed global relationships, relationships, transactions, the face of the world, which is not the same as the one we knew until a few months ago. For a whole year, China has maintained an apparently – and we emphasize this – neutral stance, avoiding immediately siding with Russia, just as it has avoided condemning the invasion of Russian troops and imposing sanctions on Moscow. It could be called “the Chinese time of silence”, which ended with the submission of a 12-point proposal to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine. The publication of the Chinese proposal caused – initially – surprise in the West and – subsequently – strong reactions, in some cases even embarrassment. What is the purpose of the proposal submitted by Beijing and how is it interpreted by the countries of the West.

Let’s look at the data:

1) NATO, the US and the European Union rejected the proposal and the role of mediator claimed by Beijing.
2) France, through Emmanuel Macron, expressed a different position from the EU, with the French president characterizing the move as “positive” and preparing for a trip to Beijing and a meeting with Xi Jinping.
3) Russia reacted positively and left open the possibility of sitting at the negotiating table.
4) The immediate stakeholder, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, also reacted positively, requesting a meeting with the Chinese president.

So we have two tendencies. The hard line from NATO, the USA, the EU and the most negotiating, mainly from Kiev, but also Paris, with Macron appearing to be a sincere advocate of peace, even if after a year, there are no winners, only losers.

Why are Western countries opposed to China’s mediation in Ukrainian? The reasons are many:

1) Because China is an ally of Russia.
2) Because China, in public discourse, may present itself as “neutral”, but in reality it supports Moscow in practice, and with material means and especially weapons.
3) Because the proposal document he presented at the G20 conference in Berlin essentially echoes Vladimir Putin’s views that the West is responsible for the invasion, criticizing the sanctions imposed on Moscow.
4)(and very important) because one cannot imagine what the consequences will be if China succeeds in ending the war in Ukraine, at a time when the West as a whole has been unable to provide a solution for 12 months.

The G20 held in India demonstrated the tension and division that has now prevailed in the world. China blocked the joint communiqué on the war in Ukraine. In fact, the tone was raised with the US, which claimed that China was “considering the provision of lethal support” to Russia. China called the claim “fabricated” and said it lacked evidence.

What China’s proposal includes:

1. “Respecting the sovereignty of all countries”
2. “Abandoning the Cold War mentality”
3. “Cease hostilities”
4. “Continuation of peace talks”
5. “Resolving the humanitarian crisis”
6. “Protection of civilians and prisoners of war”
7. “Maintaining the Safety of Nuclear Plants”
8. “Reducing strategic risks”
9. “Facilitation of grain exports”
10. “Ending Unilateral Sanctions”
11. “Maintaining stable industrial and supply chains”
12. “Promoting post-conflict reconstruction”

The questions that arise are many. China includes in the 12 points the suspension of sanctions against Russia. He is, however, calling for an immediate ceasefire, which is a way out for Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, who are suffering.

The first point states “respect for the sovereignty of all countries”. We know that Russia has officially incorporated into Russian territory both the four regions of Ukraine that have been occupied by its troops, as well as Crimea. Does the Chinese proposal refer to the sovereignty that Moscow means, or will it demand the return of Ukraine’s occupied territories from Russia? Is this an indirect recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territories?

The proposal also condemns a “Cold War mentality,” a term often used to refer to the United States and the US-European Union military alliance NATO. “The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs,” the proposal says. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded a commitment that Ukraine will not join the bloc. Therefore, this is another point that expresses the Russian positions.

“Publicly, they present themselves as a country fighting for peace in Ukraine, but privately, as I said, we’ve already seen in recent months the provision of non-lethal aid that does go directly to aid and abet Russia’s war effort,” said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, on NBC.

Blinken, at the Munich conference, said the United States has long been concerned that China will supply weapons to Russia. “We have information that concerns us that they are considering providing lethal support to Russia,” he said. Blinken said he expressed to the Chinese envoy to the meeting, Wang Yi, that “this would be a serious problem.”

Macron’s line and the cautious Solz

Macron described as positive the fact that China wants to mediate to find a peaceful solution on the Ukraine front. The French president expressed his disagreement with some of the 12 points of the Chinese peace plan, but said he plans to go to Beijing in early April and ask the Chinese authorities to put pressure on Russia to end the offensive, not use of chemical and nuclear weapons and peace building.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is set to visit China next week at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

However, Berlin’s reaction to the 12-point proposal submitted by China to the United Nations for a ceasefire in Ukraine was cautious. “From my perspective, there is a recognizable line missing that says: There must also be a withdrawal of Russian troops,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.