The May 14 election is the first contest that Turkish President Erdogan he does not enter the race as a favourite. Since taking office more than 20 years ago, first as prime minister and then as president, Erdogan has shaped the country like no other politician before him. With each victory, he expanded his power and adjusted the entire state around him. After the introduction of the presidential system, he rules the country as a de facto autocratic ruler, rendering the parliament irrelevant, with allies of the ultra-nationalist factions MHP and BBP.

Two months after the devastating earthquake and a month before the elections, almost all opinion polls show that the battle between the ruling camp and the opposition alliance is inconclusive, with some polling institutes even expecting a defeat for Erdogan. According to the polls, the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu is ahead for the presidential anointing.

But Erdogan is brilliant at tactics. He hasn’t lost an election since 2002, survived protracted mass protests and even an attempted coup and knows how to help himself. The 69-year-old has expanded his electoral alliance, recently securing the support of small Islamist separatist parties, which could tip the scales in his favor.

Women’s rights are instrumentalized

Erdogan’s electoral alliance was recently joined by the new “New Prosperity Party”, which demands that the President repeal Law 6284. This demand has caused outrage, as this is the law that ensures the protection of women in cases of violence , a problem widespread in Turkey.

Laws that protect women have long been a thorn for many Islamist parties and communities. They are responsible for increasing divorce rates in Turkey and are an expression of Western interference in Muslim-Turkish family structures. For years, Islamists have repeatedly instigated campaigns, for example against alimony payments to women, and pressured the government to amend relevant legislation. Two years ago, under their pressure, Erdogan canceled the international Istanbul Convention on the Protection of Women from Violence.

Who are Erdogan’s allies?

With the support of the “New Prosperity Party”, Erdogan’s electoral alliance grew to four parties. In addition to the Islamic conservative AKP and the Islamist New Welfare Party, its allies are now the ultra-nationalist MHP and BBP. These two factions both come from the “Ülkücü movement”, better known as the far-right “Grey Wolves”. The Gray Wolves are characterized by the German authorities as extremely nationalist, anti-Semitic and racist. They hate Kurds, Jews, Armenians and Christians, as they are convinced of the superiority of the Turkish nation. Their goal is a homogeneous state of all Turkish peoples under Turkish leadership – from the Balkans to Western China.

The New Welfare Party comes from the Milli Görüs ideology, which wants to replace the “Western order of injustice” with an Islamic “just order”. Erdogan is also supported by the Islamist party HÜDA PAR, which is said to be close to Hezbollah, which tortured and murdered numerous human rights activists, businessmen and politicians in Anatolia, especially in the 1990s.

Finally, Erdogan’s supporters include Menzil, Turkey’s largest orthodox Sufi order. For Turkey expert Thomas Schmidinger, Erdogan’s electoral alliance is a combination of political Islam and ultra-nationalism. “Menzil has taken the place of the Gülen movement as one of the most important religious networks of the AKP after the coup attempt in 2016,” he tells DW. The Turkish government had declared the Gülen movement a terrorist organization in 2016, as, for Erdogan, they were the main suspects behind the coup. Previously, the Gülen movement had always been an important pillar of the AKP since Erdogan came to power in 2002.

The end of the Erdogan era?

Should Erdogan win again with his electoral alliance on May 14, Schmidinger does not expect political changes for now. Erdogan, he says, will continue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy to compensate for domestic problems. However, Schmidinger considers an electoral victory of the governing electoral alliance unlikely with today’s data. Due to the failure of economic policy and the mismanagement of the crisis after the February earthquakes, Erdogan’s alliance no longer has the support of the majority. “And elections can only be rigged to a certain extent in Turkey as well,” he adds, indirectly referring to earlier allegations of manipulation.

Would Erdogan voluntarily step down from power in the event of defeat? Schmidinger has his doubts, mainly because the Turkish state is largely controlled by Erdogan’s minions. Furthermore, after the coup attempt, his supporters have many weapons at their disposal, which also makes armed conflict more likely. A possible regime change, according to Schmidinger, would not happen smoothly.