As in mediation for peace after the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, the only force that can counter Moscow’s plans today in Bosnia and Herzegovina seems to be, according to an analysis, the United States.
“If we are not focused, the Balkans will explode again,” warned former British Foreign Secretary William Hague.
Shortly afterwards, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson appointed the head of the airline, Sir Stuart Pitch, as his envoy for the Western Balkans. Johnson said: “The Western Balkans have been experiencing the greatest threat to their stability and security for more than two decades. “We have a responsibility to do what we can to maintain the gains made through peace and dialogue – we can not allow any return to the violence and division of the past.”
Wars in the Balkans traditionally break out in the spring or summer, with political tensions preceding the coming months. This year, the usually cold autumn was marked by intense tensions above average even for Balkan standards.
If there is one person solely responsible for the deteriorating situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who can have an impact, it is Milorad Dodik. The fancy Serbian supranationalist, who serves as a member of the country’s tripartite presidency, has made headlines over the past decade as he works openly to destroy and dismember his country.
Dodik and his friends have been advocating for years the creation of their own Abkhazia-type mini-state, which would make up forty-nine percent of the country. It would be the last “touch” of Serbian nationalist ambitions dating back to the 1990s and their genocide against Bosnian Muslims. What Dodik stands for is no different from what notorious war criminals like Radovan Karadžić and General Ratko Mladić wanted about thirty years ago.
Most recently, Bosnian Serbs pledged to rebuild their own army, even threatening to oust Bosnian army troops from their half-barracks barracks. If the West tries to intervene, Dodik warned, he would call on his “friends” for help. This was a subtle covert reference to Serbia and Russia, and perhaps even Hungary, with which Dodik has been cultivating ties in recent years.
Serbia’s position on Bosnia and its open support for Milorad Dodik and his policies are rather clear. Serbia is reluctant and unable to accept that its imaginary sovereignty is now an independent state. As she has never given up on her dream of creating a “Greater Serbia”, she continues to worry, stand up and break out in an attempt to claim her former status. His move to dominate the area stems from the tacit case of right and exception.
But why would Moscow be interested in inciting instability in the Balkans, and why is Serbia its loyal ally?
Russia considers the geographical position of the Balkans as the “soft belly” of the European Union. The region remains the last major part of Europe that is not yet fully integrated into EU and NATO structures, but borders on some NATO and EU Member States. of the Soviet era in the “backyard” of Moscow (that is, Georgia and Ukraine), Moscow feels entitled to reciprocate in the backyard of NATO.
https://nationalinterest.org/
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