After weeks of preparation, Mr Ukrainian army finally released her his counterattackwith the aim of breaking through the Russian defenses and hoping to regain lost territory.

The Ukrainian authorities, faithful to the line they have been following for days, do not give specific explanations for their actions. For its part, Russia claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Zaporizhia province, adding that the enemy suffered heavy losses.

“The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun”, many observers estimate, such as the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which, however, clarifies that it does not expect “a single large operation”, but a series of coordinated actions, as is happening now.

“Given the use of Western materials, it appears that the Ukrainian attack is underway,” notes the American Michael Coffman, quoted by the British newspaper The Financial Times.

For weeks, Kiev has been carefully orchestrating its attack, escalating actions to shape the battlefield: drones against Moscow, attacks on Russian soil, reconnaissance operations to check the opponent’s defenses.

Ukraine is playing it all for everything: with a smaller population, a piece of its territory under Russian occupation, its inhabitants under constant fire from the Russians … The authorities know that they will not have too many opportunities to repel the Russians and recover the lost lands.

“The pressure on the Ukrainians is great and we may be at a turning point in the war,” a senior French official said on Wednesday, commenting on the various preparatory actions by Kiev, which he believes are part of the counter-offensive.

“I have the feeling that they play everything for everything. If they succeed, they will negotiate from a position of strength, if not (…) In less than two years is the American election, some stockpiles (of Western weapons) have reached critical levels, they know that the rope is stretched,” he added. “If they do not succeed, the negotiations will be held in less favorable conditions. Ukrainians know it well.”

Propaganda

For the Ukrainians, “the initial operations of the counteroffensive may prove to be the most difficult and the slowest,” according to the ISW. “Some setbacks at the beginning are to be expected,” until the Ukrainian army manages to break through the defense line that the Russians have been strengthening for months.

“I can’t imagine one side or the other getting the upper hand,” a Western security source had commented last week.

In the meantime propaganda from both sides will increase and it will be difficult to objectively assess a victory or defeat until some time passes.

Another factor increasing the pressure on the Ukrainians: the increase in offers of mediation from non-Western countries, who want this war to end as soon as possible.

China, which backs Russia, has already offered to mediate, while next week a delegation of several African leaders will visit Kiev and Moscow in a bid to work towards peace.

Ukraine has “two fundamental principles,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reminded. Any proposal “should not include territorial retreats from Ukraine and should not lead to the ‘freezing’ of the conflict”, which, according to him, would de facto consolidate Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories.