Parliamentary elections will be held in Poland on October 15, President Andrzej Duda announced today. The election will determine Warsaw’s relationship with the European Union at a time when Poland faces rising tensions on its eastern border.

The outcome of the election in the bloc’s largest eastern member state is likely to affect the prospect of warming relations between Warsaw and Brussels, which have been strained by disputes over issues such as the rule of law and immigration.

The election will also decide which party will lead the country – a member of NATO and a key ally of Ukraine – and will lead Poland into a period of increasing instability on its eastern border, amid concern over the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus and the rise of the number of migrants attempting to cross the border illegally.

“I have decided to mandate the holding of these elections on October 15, 2023,” Duda said on Platform X. “Poland’s future is everyone’s business! Exercise your rights!”

Polls show the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, in power since 2015, maintains a narrow lead over the largest opposition party, the liberal Citizens Platform (PO).

However, even if the winner of the 2015 and 2019 elections manages an unprecedented third consecutive election victory, he is unlikely to secure a majority in Parliament, leaving open the possibility of forming a coalition government with the far-right Confederation party.

PiS has so far focused its campaign on raising the level of financial aid as part of its child benefit policy, while declaring it will take a hard line on border security and criticizing what it says is the PO’s servile approach to the country’s relations with the EU and Germany.

The party plans to hold a referendum on the EU’s migration deal, which the current Polish government opposes. In fact, the referendum may be held on the same day as the parliamentary elections.

PO stresses that PiS’s removal from power is necessary to unblock EU funds frozen by disputes over the rule of law and to reverse changes to the judiciary and state media that critics say have eroded democratic standards in the country.