The victories of the parties of the Christian Union (CDU/CSU), the strengthening of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which won second place, and the exclusion of the Liberals (FDP) from the parliament of Bavaria – and possibly also of Hesse – are the key features of the electoral result of the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse.

In Bavaria, Prime Minister Markus Zeder’s Christian Social Union (CSU) won, as expected, with 36.6% (-0.6 from the 2018 election), but still recorded its lowest percentage ever.

The AfD, strengthened by 5.7 points, reaches 15.9% and second place, leaving the CSU’s “minor” government partner, the Free Voters (FW), in third place with 15.1% (-5, 5). The Greens follow with 14.9% (-2.7) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) shrinks further, with 7.9% (-1.8). The Liberals (FDP) remain outside the state parliament, with 2.9% (-2.2).

In Hesse Prime Minister Boris Rein (CDU), who replaced Volker Boufier, who resigned before completing his term, won the trust of the citizens and collected 34.5%, 7.5 points more than in the previous election .

AfD is in second place here too with 18.4%, 5.3 points more than in 2018. It is followed by Nancy Feser’s SPD, with 15.1% (-4.7), which suffered a crushing defeat.

Ms Feser chose to run in Hesse without resigning from the federal interior ministry and now faces strong criticism and admonitions to do so, even now. The co-ruling Greens lost 5 points and were reduced to 14.8%, while the FDP is at 5% (-2.5) and marginally in a local parliament.

The migratory determinant

Decisive for the vote in the two states where a quarter of Germany’s population lives was, as it turned out, the management of immigration, with the parties of the governing coalition suffering a significant reduction in their percentages.

“For the majority of voters, federal politics was decisive in the election. The federal coalition was punished in both states,” INSA Institute head Hermann Binkert told Bild. He estimated that 80% of voters in the two states want a completely different immigration policy and voted largely on that basis – an element from which the AfD mainly benefited.

It is characteristic, according to Mr. Binkert, that Nancy Feser, who as Secretary of the Interior manages immigration, has been charged on behalf of the federal government with the responsibility for the situation that has been taking place for several months.

“Immigration policy has overshadowed everything,” admitted the head of the SPD parliamentary group in Hesse, Ginder Rudolph.

A similar view was expressed by Mainz University political scientist Juergen Falter, who told Bild that “dissatisfaction with the federal government’s immigration and energy policy was probably the determining factor in this election.”

In a commentary in the magazine Der Spiegel it is pointed out that the governing coalition needs a restart, and that the AfD is consolidating itself as a strong force – also – in the western states. The AfD “has lost the reputation of the protest party of disaffected East Germans, which many in the West still perceive it to be. The AfD is a challenge to German democracy as a whole,” the magazine stressed.

And while the CDU benefits from the general discontent and rejection of the federal government, the FDP now faces an existential threat: it is out of parliament in almost half of the federal states. This means that its leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner is now under increased pressure.

In the future the FDP will inevitably see itself even more as a “corrector” of government policy, which will cause new problems for Olaf Solz’s government.

The Greens, on the other hand, seem to have been blamed for the general confusion over the energy transition and climate policy and the constant back-and-forths of Economy Minister Robert Habeck.