In the face of the war between Israel and Hamas, the Arab countries that established diplomatic relations with the Jewish state in recent years are called upon to play the role of balancer in order not to displease either their new partner or the Arab public opinion that sides with the Palestinians.

But their position risks becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Israel’s expected long-term and highly lethal bombing campaign on the Gaza Strip, analysts say.

The day after the attack by the Islamist organization that runs Gaza against Israel, The United Arab Emirates, the first Gulf country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, stood out from its Arab partners in strongly condemning the Hamas attack.

“We are grateful to the United Arab Emirates for their position,” said Israel’s consul general in Dubai Liron Zaslansky, welcoming the placement of his country’s friends “on its side.”

With the start of Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip and the imposition of a blanket siege on its 2.3 million inhabitants, the wealthy Gulf country he also rushed to announce $20 million in humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.

Narrow margins of maneuver

The signatory countries the covenants of Abraham –the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco – they have “quite narrow” room for maneuver in order not to endanger their relationship with Israel, nor to displease the pro-Palestinian Arab public opinion, explains Joseph Bahout, director of the Fares Institute of Public Policy and International Affairs in Beirut.

They are in a “very uncomfortable” situation and are currently focused on protecting civilians, according to Cynthia Bianco of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR, Conseil européen pour les relations internationales).

But for Joseph Bahut, “this stance cannot last long in the face of Israeli retaliation which will be very violent.”

In Bahrain and Morocco, which were also content to report civilian casualties, demonstrations in support of the Palestinians were held in the first days of the offensive.

These mobilizations can only increase if the war lasts, warns analyst Andreas Krieg of King’s College London.

“Even countries like the United Arab Emirates, where there is no real civil society, must ensure that public support for the Palestinian cause is in line with the government’s policy and public stance.”

Beyond the rhetoric of solidarity, the escalation of the conflict calls into question one of the arguments behind signing the Abraham Accords promoted by Donald Trump.

“In recent years the establishment of relations with Israel has been dictated by national interests, but it was partly presented as an initiative that could break the Palestinian-Israeli conflict out of the impasse,” according to Kuwaiti analyst Bad al-Saif. “It is time for these states to use the capital they have against Israel to defuse the situation and move towards peace, just as other countries are being asked to do the same with Hamas.”

Utopian idea

At a time when the other Arab countries set as a condition for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel the signing of a peace agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state, The Abraham Accords did not address the fundamental issues that are the sources of instability in the Middle East, such as the occupation of Palestinian territories, settlement, the status of Jerusalem, the distribution of water resources, the issue of refugees…, according to analysts.

“The idea of ​​an economic peace, of de facto solidarity that would be created and lead to a political peace turned out to be utopian,” says Karim Bitar of IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques).

The war escalation will put pressure mainly on Saudi Arabiathe leading power of the Gulf Arab states, which has been pressured in recent months by the US administration to also sign a “normalization” agreement with Israel.

“The Abrahamic covenants are here to stay. But any new normalization process between the Arab countries and Israel is on hold for the foreseeable future,” according to Rada Slim of the Middle East Institute in Washington.