The threat of Russian business to Finland’s infrastructure has increased since it joined NATO, Finnish intelligence (Supo) estimates, as authorities investigate possible sabotage of a pipeline.

“The threat of espionage or influence operations against essential infrastructure has increased,” Andy Peltari, director of Supo, told a news conference today.

Relations with the powerful neighbor have “deteriorated significantly” since Finland joined NATO in April and Russia is “preparing to take measures against Finland”, Finnish services said in their annual report.

Finnish authorities are investigating the leak that led to the closure of the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia on Sunday, on suspicion of possible outside interference.

Peltari declined to comment on the origin of this incident, saying “the involvement of a state actor cannot be ruled out.”

After three decades of military neutrality, Finland, which shares a 1,300km border with Russia, became NATO’s 31st member in early April.

The pipeline incident comes a year after the September 26, 2022, sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline that carries natural gas from Russia to Germany, the origins of which remain a mystery.

The state of the Finnish gas system will remain stable thanks to the supply from the floating liquefied natural gas (GNL) terminal in Inku (south), according to the Finnish grid operator Gasgrid.

Gasgrid estimates that the repairs will last at least five months.

Operations that could paralyze Finnish infrastructure remain “unlikely in the short term,” Supo said, adding that Russia’s main goal is to intimidate.

“The energy sector is therefore an example of a target in this regard“, noted researcher Suvi Alvari.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised yesterday, Wednesday, a “decisive response” from the Alliance if the damage caused to the pipeline between Finland and Estonia in the Baltic Sea turns out to be the result of a “deliberate attack”.

Estonia is also a member of NATO.