‘Abandonment fear’: Ukraine, whose counter-offensive against Russian forces has not produced the desired results, is at a turning point as US aid is questioned and European unity is shaking as next week’s European summit approaches.

In an indication of the electrifying atmosphere that prevails, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky he was going to speak virtually before the US Congress in an attempt to unblock the new money package critical for Ukraine. His intervention was ultimately canceled at the last minute without explanation.

French President Emmanuel Macron will welcome the Prime Minister of Hungary at the Elysee Palace tomorrow Viktor Orbanwhich wants to put obstacles in the way of the European Union’s support to Ukraine.

Orban is asking for the postponement of two crucial decisions on Ukraine that will be put to a vote in the member states of the European Union: one concerns the financial aid of 50 billion euros, the other the start of the accession negotiations between Kyiv and Brussels.

The major Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in June ultimately failed to liberate Russian-held territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, raising questions about the continuation of massive Western military aid.

And while progress has been made in the Black Sea allowing Kiev to export agricultural products, the military situation on land fronts now appears frozen, with no prospect of a near-term solution at the tactical level. However, Kiev insists it can win if Western military aid continues.

“All or nothing”?

However, even if the massive Western aid continues, Ukraine has a shortage of military personnel, where Russia does not face a problem, states a European military official at NATO, noting that “in the training courses (which NATO has made available to Ukrainian soldiers) , now older people with less training are presented”.

“Now we have to manage Zelensky, get him to change his somewhat “all or nothing” attitude. No one is saying it officially, but I believe this is being prepared,” the NATO military source comments.

A French diplomatic source tries to soften these comments by pointing out that Ukraine currently has a “very low level of mobilization” and that from Russia’s side “the statistics are rigged”.

It is certain that the morale of the Ukrainians is no longer buoyant, with war weariness. But at the front the tone of the soldiers does not change.

Although the war is very costly, “Europeans will never leave Ukraine because they know that if Putin takes over Ukraine, it will be an extremely dangerous precedent,” with risks for the Baltic states and Poland, he says Tatiana Kastueva-Jean of the Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri).

The French diplomatic source emphasizes that all the reasons that led to support for Ukraine on February 24, 2022 remain in place.

“Support for Ukraine is a security bet for Europe and France,” the French diplomatic source said, adding that the idea that one crisis will displace another must be combated, in a reference to Ukrainian fears that war between Israel and Hamas will divert the attention of the Europeans from the war in Ukraine.

Dangerous period

It is natural that there are questions almost three years after the start of this war, says a French diplomatic source. “The whole world understands that we are in a dangerous period, but I don’t see defeatism in Brussels or in NATO.”

For Tatiana Kastueva-Jean, it is urgent for the Europeans to silence the dissenters, like Hungary’s at the moment when “everything is playing in favor of the status quo” at the military level, and this probably until the American elections of November 2024.

Such a message is even more important inside Ukraine, as quarrels have appeared within the leadership elites, emphasizes the director of the Ifri Russia-Eurasia Center, referring mainly to the deterioration of relations between President Zelensky and the head of the armed forces Valery Zaluzny.

“Is it the end of the holy union behind Zelensky or just a parenthesis connected to the problems at the front?”, he wonders.

In this context, French diplomats are trying to convince their partners in the European Union and the Atlantic Alliance that it is of fundamental importance to continue supporting Ukraine in order to send the message to Vladimir Putin “not to bet on the exhaustion of support” for the Kiev.

Zelensky assures the Ukrainians of the victory he will achieve over Russia

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president told Ukrainians today that Kiev will defeat Russia and score a just victory “against all odds” as vital US military and economic aid hangs in the balance.

Zelensky sent the above message through an unusual video early this morning in which he is seen walking the streets of Kyiv to pay tribute to the soldiers who have been killed on the occasion of today’s Armed Forces Day, which is celebrated in the country.

“It was difficult, but we persevered,” said Zelensky, who filmed himself on a cellphone as he walked from his office on Khrushchevskoho Street to the “wall of memory” in central Kyiv.

“It’s not easy now, but we’re moving forward. As hard as it is, we will get there. To our borders, to our people. In our peace. Just peace. Free peace. Against all odds.”

He said Ukraine has no alternative but to liberate its territories held by Russia.

“These are our lands. These are our people. Is there an alternative? No. Nine years and 651 days of war are behind us. Victory is ahead. And how else? Could there be an alternative? We all know: no,” said Zelensky.