BBC analysis: Why 2023 was a difficult year for the West

The past 12 months have seen a series of setbacks for the US, Europe and the West in general. Although none have so far proved catastrophic, the change in the balance of power that escapes the hitherto dominated USA is now a fact.

On many fronts, the wind is blowing in the wrong direction for western interests, according to the BBC report. See why the West came out a loser this year and what benefits could come.

Ukraine

Despite some recent successes in the Black Sea, the war is not going well for Ukraine. This means, by extension, that things are not going well for NATO and the EU, which have funded Ukraine’s war effort and its economy with tens of millions of dollars.

Last year, as today, hopes were high in NATO that by supplying the Ukrainian army with modern equipment and intensive training of soldiers from Western countries, the Ukrainians could gain the advantage to push the Russians out of much of their territory. understand. However, this did not happen due to bad timing. NATO countries have been slow to decide whether to send modern tanks such as Germany’s Challenger 2 and Leopard 2. Eventually, the West handed over the tanks, but when everything was ready to deploy the tanks to the battlefield last June, Russian commanders were already aware of the Ukrainian plans.

All the while Ukrainian brigades were training in Britain and elsewhere in the first half of 2023, and while tanks were being moved east to the front, Russia was building the largest, most extensive lines of defensive fortifications in modern history. So, Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive failed.

For Ukraine and the West, everything is almost going in the wrong direction. Ukraine has a serious shortage of ammunition and soldiers. Congress is stalling White House efforts to advance a $60 billion military aid package.

Hungary is also suspending the EU’s 50 billion euro aid package. But the Ukrainian forces must already go on the defensive. Obviously this situation is deeply disappointing for Ukraine, which had hoped to have turned the tide of the war in its favor by now. But why does it matter to the West? Because President Putin, who personally ordered this invasion almost two years ago, only needs to hold the territory he has captured (about 18% of Ukraine) to declare Russia victorious.

At the same time, the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all NATO members – are convinced that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, then it will be their turn within five years.

Vladimir Putin

The Russian president is a wanted man. Theoretically. In March 2023, he was indicted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes committed against Ukrainian children.

The West hoped this would make him an international pariah and keep him in his country, unable to travel for fear of arrest and deportation to The Hague. But this did not happen.

Since then, Putin has traveled to Kyrgyzstan, China, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, each time receiving a red carpet welcome. He has also participated substantially in the BRICS Summit in South Africa.

Continued EU sanctions were supposed to bring the Russian economy to its knees, forcing Putin to reverse his invasion. However, Russia has proven remarkably resilient to these sanctions by sourcing many of its products through other countries such as China and Kazakhstan.

It is true that the West has been largely weaned on Russian oil and gas, but Moscow has found other willing customers, albeit at a reduced price.

The fact is that while Putin’s invasion and brutal invasion of Ukraine is abhorrent to Western nations, it is largely not to the rest of the world. Many nations see this war as Europe’s problem, with some states blaming NATO, saying that it actually provoked Russia.

Gauze

The Israel-Hamas war has clearly been devastating for all citizens of Gaza and for those Israelis affected by Hamas’s murderous incursion into southern Israel on October 7. It was also a bad event for the West as it managed to divert attention from Ukraine. American ammunition is now given to Israel and not Ukraine.

But above all, in the eyes of many Muslims and others around the world, made the US and the UK look complicit in the destruction of Gaza defending Israel at the UN.

The war has already spread to the southern Red Seawhere the Iran-backed Houthis are launching explosive drones and missiles at ships, driving up commodity prices as the world’s major shipping lines are forced to change course and head for southern Africa.

Iran

Iran is accused of developing secret nuclear weapon, which he denies. But despite the West’s efforts, it is far from isolated, having extended its military tentacles into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza through militias it funds, trains and equips.

This year, we’ve seen it gain an ever-increasing closer alliance with Moscow, in which he provides a seemingly inexhaustible supply of drones. Characterized as a hostile threat by many Western nations, Iran has benefited from the Gaza war by positioning itself in the Middle East as a champion of the Palestinian cause.

Sahel of Africa

One by one, the countries of West Africa’s Sahel region have succumbed to military coups.

The former French colonies of Mali, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic had already turned against the Europeans when, last July, another coup saw the ouster of a pro-Western president in Niger.

The last French troops have now left the country, although 600 US troops remain.

Meanwhile, South Africa, once considered a Western ally, is conducting joint naval exercises with Russian and Chinese warships.

North Korea

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is supposed to be under severe international sanctions because of its banned nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program.

However, this year has forged close ties with Russiawith its leader Kim Jong Un visiting a Russian space station, and sending a million artillery shells at Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

North Korea has conducted several test launches of ballistic missiles which are now believed to be capable of reaching most parts of the continental US.

China

To some extent, 2023 saw progress in Beijing-Washington relations. However, China has shown no sign of backing down on its claims for most of the South China Sea, issuing a new “standard” map that extends its claims almost to the shores of several Asia-Pacific countries.

Nor has it given up its claims on Taiwan, which it has vowed to “take back,” even by force if necessary.

Are there any glimmers of optimism?

Against this gloomy backdrop for the West, it is perhaps difficult to see some glimmers of optimism. But the upside for her is that the NATO alliance has clearly regained its defensive purpose, galvanized by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Western unanimity that has existed so far has surprised many, although some cracks are now beginning to appear.

However, there is still room for improvement, especially on the Middle East issue. This is partly due to the terrifying scale of the events that have unfolded on both sides of the Gaza-Israel border.

Before Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, the search for a solution to the question of a future Palestinian state had been largely abandoned. A certain complacency had crept into Israel’s talks with the Palestinians that this was a problem that could somehow be dealt with through security measures, without them having to make serious moves to offer them a state of their own. This formula turned out to be fatally flawed. One world leader after another has declared that Israelis will not be able to live in the peace and security they deserve unless the Palestinians can do the same.

Finding a just and sustainable solution to a problem that stretches back into history will be incredibly difficult and will ultimately involve painful compromises and sacrifices on both sides if it is to succeed. But now at last, he has the world’s attention.