Charles has cancer: The next day for the monarchy and regency scenarios

Unusually for Britain’s ‘unwritten’ constitution, arrangements for an ailing monarch can be found through a simple Google search.

An official plan is set out in the Regency Act 1937, an act of parliament covering four possible scenarios: a monarch who “ascends” to the throne before the age of 18, a monarch who becomes permanently incapacitated, temporarily incapacitated or simply absent and not performing his duties.

For the first two scenarios, a “regent” will be created, who will act as a monarch in name only. For the latter two, councilors of state – constitutional deputies – are appointed to act on behalf of the king.

During the recent intervention of King Charles to the prostate, again with the announcement of his cancer diagnosis, the Palace made it clear that Charles does not intend to appoint advisers to carry out his duties while he recovers. These would be Prince William’s eldest son, his sister Princess Anne or his brother Prince Edward.

As with his late mother, Charles appears to have a severe aversion to enlisting relatives during a setback… Queen Elizabeth II used advisers only once on this basis when Charles, then Prince of Wales, and William opened Parliament on her behalf in May 2022.

The late Queen’s love of traveling the world meant that advisers of state, usually Elizabeth’s mother and her sister Princess Margaret, were often found giving royal assent to acts of parliament – the process by which a monarch signs new laws – or, occasionally, even declare a state of emergency. Charles himself appointed advisers of state last year during trips to Germany and Romania.

Although the British monarch has little political power, he performs a variety of constitutional duties, including giving his signature or verbal consent to legal documents at meetings of a “dark” advisory body known as the Privy Council.

Councilors of State can perform most of the same duties, but with two exceptions. They cannot dissolve parliament or appoint new members of the House of Lords. Both acts are prohibited by law.

If, however, a monarch loses the ability to hold a pen or speak clearly, then it is clearly time for a regency.

In the last weeks of his life, George V – the great-grandfather of Karolos – was an invalid. At one point, the king’s physician even helped guide his hand to write “GR” (Georgius Rex) on a government document. His son King George VI, horrified, later asked the government to make more dignified arrangements. Thus the law was born Regency Act of 1937.

However, a monarch cannot initiate a regency himself. This thankless role is undertaken by others, five people to be exact, including the monarch’s wife and the Speaker of the House of Commons. They “declare” the monarch incapacitated.

At this point, the next in line to the throne – in this case Prince William – will officially become regent. As with the councilors of state, the regent can do pretty much anything the incapacitated monarch can no longer do, except give royal assent to legislation that alters the… “line of succession”.

Not everything was always so clear and tidy… In 1788 King George III – famous for losing the American colonies – suffered his first bout of “madness” and was unable to assent to legislation providing for a regent. Parliament passed the new laws anyway, arguably an unconstitutional act.

In sickness and in health

King Charles is not the first British monarch to be diagnosed with cancer during his reign. But at least he has the luxury of having all the facts of his situation in his possession.

In September 1951, doctors didn’t even tell George VI – Charles’s grandfather – that he was suffering from lung cancer. George VI underwent surgery at Buckingham Palace and the operation was, relatively speaking, a success. Only three days later a very weak king appointed councilors of state. A few months later, he died. He was only 56 years old.

Prime Minister at the time Clement Attlee had called an early general election as the king recovered from his operation. But helpfully, the British constitution has long provided that the monarch dies after parliament is dissolved but before an election.

In such a scenario – and don’t forget that the election is due to be held later this year – then polling day is postponed by a fortnight, which can be extended or shortened by up to seven days. This would allow for all the necessary ceremonial obligations surrounding the death of a monarch (a process we are all now familiar with) without wasting days of campaigning.

There is another option for an ailing monarch not covered by the law: abdication. But during the long reign of Queen Elizabeth II it was regarded in the palace as a “dirty” word. However, King Charles also seems unlikely to follow the example of his great uncle, King Edward VIII, and voluntarily surrender the throne.

According to journalist Robert Hardman’s recent book on the king, Charles disliked any talk of establishing a regency while his mother was still alive. And while the 1937 Act was meant to cover every eventuality, in that respect it failed. In 1953 it was amended so that Prince Philip, the Queen’s husband, would become regent rather than the Queen’s sister, Princess Margaret, in the event of his wife’s death. This was considered fair, given that he was the father of the heir to the throne.

Looking ahead, another, more unpleasant scenario may emerge. If Prince William becomes king in the next few years, then the appropriate regent should he die will not be his son, Prince George, who won’t turn 18 until 2031, but his… “exiled” brother his, Prince Harry, who met his father – for the first time – in almost a year.

Given all that has happened, will we see Parliament legislate to make William’s wife, Kate, Princess of Wales, the future regent in Harry’s place? But let’s not get ahead of ourselves…

Although a cancer diagnosis for any 75-year-old is a serious matter, it is not the end of the world. King Charles III could reign for another 20 years or more…