Taiwan recognizes itself in the Ukraine crisis, but the island’s situation vis-a-vis China is different

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As the United States repeated last weekend that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen “at any moment”, Mandarin teacher Min Lee, 30, took to Twitter to vent.

“The situations in Ukraine and Taiwan are very similar. The only difference is that Taiwan is at least surrounded by the sea…”, he wrote, prompting a small debate among his friends about the island’s security. THE sheet the Taiwanese, who now lives in Thailand, reiterates: “When I see the news from Ukraine, I get scared, because Russia’s attitude is similar to China’s.”

After all, in both cases, giant countries threaten their small neighbors, who expect help from Western powers – especially the US – to defend them from war.

But the similarities don’t go much further than that, in the opinion of analysts, who argue that Taiwan is of greater strategic importance than Ukraine and that, therefore, a military conflict in the region needs to be much more calculated.

The Taiwan issue dates back to 1949, when the Communist Party seized power in mainland China, and nationalists from the defeated Kuomintang fled to the island. The conflict has never been resolved, and Taiwan officially designates itself as the Republic of China — as opposed to the mainland of the People’s Republic of China.

Over the decades, nationalist sentiment has grown, and today 75% of Taiwanese say they consider the country independent, according to the Taiwan National Security Survey. Although this happens in practice – there are free elections, its own currency and a Constitution – the island has no seat at the UN and is considered by China as a rebel province to be re-annexed.

Just as Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, China has made a series of incursions with its Air Force into Taiwanese airspace, and it was on one such occasion, in late January, that the president herself addressed the issue. Ukrainian question.

“Taiwan has faced military threats and intimidation from China for a long time. Therefore, we empathize with Ukraine’s situation and support efforts by all sides to maintain regional security,” said Tsai Ing-wen.

This week, the Presidency touched on the subject again, announcing that it was closely monitoring the crisis in Europe. “All military units continue to closely observe the situation in Ukraine and movements in the Taiwan Strait. [que separa a ilha da China] continue to strengthen intelligence and monitoring and gradually increase the level of combat readiness in response to various signals and threats,” the government said.

The comparison also took on another dimension when Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese Xi Jinping earlier this month in Beijing and gained support in his efforts to keep NATO (Western military alliance) out of the zone of influence. russian.

What matters to the planet, however, is not exactly the security of Ukraine or Taiwan, but the extent to which the US will go to defend these countries against two of its great geopolitical adversaries, in the assessment of Chang Bi-yu, a professor at the Center for Taiwanese Studies at the University of London. “How the West deals with the Ukraine issue will reflect on how it will deal with Taiwan if there is a Chinese invasion.”

For her, however, the similarities between the two situations are few. One of the main differences is the very nature of the conflict. Today Russia is not threatening to annex Ukraine, as it did to Crimea in 2014, but to react to a NATO advance in its backyard. China, on the other hand, claims sovereignty over Taiwan.

In addition, the island’s economic (Taiwan’s GDP is almost five times that of Ukraine’s, even with half the population) and technological strength (they produce more than half of the world’s semiconductors, essential in the electronics industry), serve as a kind of shock absorber, which brakes more aggressive military impulses.

Added to this is the fact that the island is in a safe area for Japan and within an essential zone of influence for the US in the Pacific, which would give rise to quick reactions.

“Military tension has been around for over 70 years,” says Chang. “I think Taiwanese are worried, and always have been, but they need to move on with life as much as possible. They’re not afraid. [de um ataque agora]”.

Businessman TH Schee, 44, an activist who lives in New Taipei, the country’s largest city, in the capital’s metropolitan region, is one of those who believe they will see China invade the island one day. But exception is said. Perception on the streets, he says to sheetis that “the Taiwanese people do not feel that a real conflict is going to happen anytime soon”.

After all, on the island, “you can’t hear or see gunfire along the border, like in eastern Ukraine. Taiwan is an island, and the strait offers a sense of protection, which leads to a false sense of security,” he says. .

“The last major incident happened in 1995 and 1996, and I clearly remember that people were much more panicked, even though today we have a lot more incursions by the Chinese Air Force into Taiwan’s aerial identification zone.” of missiles made by China to intimidate Taiwan in the 1990s.

At the time, in response, the US, then ruled by Bill Clinton, sent the largest naval contingent to Asia since the Vietnam War. The Taiwanese question is whether they will be willing to do the same now.

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