After his landslide election victory last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that Turkey’s center of economic and political power was the next target in his crosshairs, Politico reports. “Are we ready to win back Istanbul?” the Turkish leader asked his audience as he celebrated his triumph in the country’s presidential race in May 2023. “We started with Istanbul, we will continue with Istanbul.”

Last year’s presidential contest was disastrous for Turkey’s secular opposition, which saw the election as its best chance to oust Erdogan since he took power in 2003. This Sunday’s election in Istanbul, which takes place on the same day as regional and municipal elections across Turkey, it is a case of “all or nothing”.

If Erdogan’s anointed candidate wrests back the country’s most important metropolis, where the president himself made his name, it will eliminate the remaining opposition bastion to his rule. But if Istanbul’s opposition mayor holds on and maintains control of the city, which accounts for 18% of Turkey’s population and a third of its economy, could offer him a stepping stone to power. According to Turkey’s often unreliable polls, the race appears to be close. Recent surveys give the opposition Republican People’s Party a lead that ranging from nine units to less than one unit. Another poll gave Erdogan’s Islamist AKP a marginal one-point lead. The stakes, both practical and symbolic, could hardly be higher for politicians fighting for Turkey’s future.

The election will determine whether Erdogan will deepen and consolidate his authoritarian and Islamist rule, or whether there is still an alternative path.

Victory of Turkey

For Celine Nassi, associate of the European Institute of the London School of Economics, “Istanbul it is not only the commercial and financial hub of Turkey, but also the cultural and spiritual heart of the country… a microcosm of Turkey”. As a result, he said, “winning Istanbul is like winning Turkey” — partly because of the financial clout that comes with controlling the city’s budget and partly because of its “deep symbolic significance” for Erdogan himself, the who began his career with a surprise victory in the city’s mayoral elections exactly 30 years ago.

These links are between words that Erdoğan was so surprised from the triumph in the last mayoral contest of Republican People’s Party candidate Ekrem Imamoglu — an opposition politician who, to some, has a “superstar” quality in Turkish politics.

Indeed, the AKP was so shocked by Imamoglu’s shock victory in Istanbul in 2019 that it planned a repeat election — but lost handily. It remains one of the ruling party’s most ignominious defeats to date. Five years later, Erdogan is trying to “finish off” his youngest rival – and with him Turkey’s fractured opposition.

“If Imamoglu is defeated, the secular opposition will not be able to rally its forces, will be completely confused and unable to challenge the current ruling bloc and the consolidation of an increasingly Islamized and authoritarian system,” said Soli Ozel, a senior politician. analyst at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. Ozel predicted that it may take a decade for the opposition to recover from the defeat in Istanbul and other major cities such as Ankara. Instead, if Imamoglu prevails, he will cement his reputation as the only politician of the past quarter-century who has been able to beat Erdogan — and perhaps find himself on a path to power. “If Imamoglu wins again, it would be his third victory against Erdogan — after that he’ll be headed for the presidency,” a politician from Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party told POLITICO on condition of anonymity. “Erdogan sees this, and wants to stop him.”

To represent the AKP in this decisive race, Erdogan tapped Murat Kurum, a former environment minister and one of the most prominent government officials activated in Turkey’s February 2023 cataclysmic earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people. Critics criticized the government for being too slow to respond to this disaster. Erdogan and Kurum say they tried to rebuild what was destroyed.

“Fate’s Choice”

The Turkish president did not shy away from campaigning for his candidate, calling on Istanbul’s electorate to punish the opposition for its alleged incompetence and failure to build the city’s infrastructure. “Let’s give them the lesson they deserve on March 31,” he told a rally in Istanbul this month, describing Sunday’s games as a “crisis” and an “election of fate.” Erdogan has thrown all his political weight into the election campaign, sending no less than 17 government ministers in an election campaign in Istanbul.

Many commentators predict that Erdogan will use a victory in Sunday’s election, which will determine who holds power and economic resources in cities and regions across the country, as a springboard to amend the constitution so he can serve more terms as president.

As Istanbul’s mayor and opposition figure, Imamoglu is arguably the main obstacle to Erdogan changing the constitution to extend his rule. The mayor’s role was enhanced by the chaos in the opposition ranks. After her defeat in last year’s presidential election, a multi-party alliance collapsed and former Republican People’s Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu was forced out. But Imamoglu denies that he has plans for the presidency. Asked about his ambitions by POLITICO, Istanbul’s mayor responded in a statement through an adviser: “Governing Istanbul is a sacred duty … There is no other issue on my agenda right now.”

Imamoglu is already fighting government-sponsored lawsuits seeking to disqualify him from public office over allegedly offensive comments he made about the officials who voided his initial election as mayor. But as he prepares for a battle for a megacity that could define his country’s future, Imamoglu has shown defiant opposition. Asked what he will do if he loses to Erdogan’s forces, he said: “I don’t base my career plans on failure.”