Analysis: Putin may even lose in the end, but he has already defeated the West in the Ukraine war

Regardless of the end result of his audacious invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has already vanquished the West in this acute crisis, not seen on European shores since Adolf Hitler sent his last reserves across the Ardennes forest in the winter of 1944 to try to throw the Allies overboard. .

Unlike the Nazi dictator, however, the Russian president does not seem to be at the terminal ebb of his power, although he may not be at his zenith. On the contrary, in this protracted struggle with the West, with the United States at the forefront, he has dealt the cards from the beginning.

It’s a familiar story, ranging from the humiliations suffered by Russia in the chaotic post-Cold War decade to the early morning cruise missile salvos of February 24th. Putin has emerged as a kind of savior of the motherland and, for the average Russian so far, has delivered a better country.

Along the way, however, he ossified the political system around him. In 2020, he gave in to the temptation of institutional perpetuation, paving the way to stay in the chair until the age of 83, in 2036. Now, he presents Russia with the prospect of many years of political-economic ostracism — if not worse.

Putin’s motives are known and follow a logic, which is to regain political control over the former Soviet periphery to avoid the gluttony of the West and its associated structures, NATO and the European Union.

No one can say that the path was unlikely: in 2008, he attacked Georgia in a mini-war that is more reminiscent of the current one than the 2014 conflict in Ukraine itself, when it annexed Crimea and sparked the civil war that is at the center of the conflict. current crisis.

Yet for all his track record as a tactical player, limited to the next move as opposed to an extended horizon strategic sophistication, Putin surprised all observers outside the alarmist circle of the Western media-intelligence-government complex.

Politically, Putin has proved his point grimly. The post-war world, and here we are talking about the conflict that ended in 1945, is dead. The spasms of post-Cold War American hegemony, which kept the previous structure alive by apparatus, are no longer there.

The fact that the war began while old gentlemen fought each other in the same United Nations that both Putin and the great hidden subject of the geopolitical analysis of the moment, Xi Jinping, defend as a great stage of a necessary and respectful multilateralism is not without symbolism. the political particularities of each country.

But Ukraine, as the Russian made it clear from 2020 onwards, does not enter the category of State. In the Putinist worldview, Kiev is a Bolshevik henchman of Russian imperialism, and must return to the category of “historical area”.

So bomb yourself, even if it seems illogical for alienating the population you should be trying to conquer. But Putin’s game is about the sagging muscles of the liberal-democratic world, and the implications of this are frightening even for Brazilians on the periphery.

The president says, with his action, that with brute force he can impose his will. Adversaries, after all, can only promise increasingly crippling sanctions — which so far have not killed the Russian economy and, depending on the dose applied, may also victimize their proponents.

If the world was already a more dangerous place when Putin imposed his logic on little Georgia, today the “new normal” announced by the NATO chief has the face of war in Europe. Historically, democratic regimes are more adaptable and, due to flaws, subject to course corrections. They embodied what Churchill said of democracy being the worst form of government, with the exception of the others.

Now, as in the 1930s, its moment of crisis is attacked with force by illiberal challengers. There are obvious differences with that reality, but the smell of repetition is uncomfortable, and the termite is in the house, as Donald Trump had already proved.

Worse for the West that Joe Biden is the man on the other side — or Trump, to stay in the duopoly. Both lack the energy to establish a channel to deal with this new normal, just as Barack Obama was wrong to allow Putin to gain muscle by saving the Syrian dictatorship from the civil war.

This is not to suggest that NATO should enter the war, for evident apocalyptic risks and Putin’s potential appetite to also want to prove himself credible in this field. At this point, best not to doubt it, and this is another victory for him.

But the path that mixed contempt for the Russians and a lack of strategic vision has led the West to the current impasse, with its institutions repeating the same speeches like automatons. Side-by-side dialogue was lacking, and then the Russian will always be able to say that he has been warning about this since the famous Munich speech in 2007.

It’s late. Putin can fail militarily, see his own population mobilize against him, end up choking on sanctions. Or win and still find a lifeline in China.

In any case, the result is there: a demonstration of military might, hard realpolitik and complete fearlessness when justifying motivations with mystifications and truths in equal measure. The wolf, after having his name screamed for so long, bit.