Ukrainian forces are in a defensive position after the three-pronged invasion by the Russian army on Thursday, which is numerically more powerful, has much higher equipment and is much more experienced, due to its involvement in the conflict in Syria, Western analysts note. .
The purpose of the Russian invasion is not yet clear, but there is no doubt that the capital, Kiev, is the target. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a statement announcing the start of the operation that Moscow was seeking “demilitarization and de-Nazification” of Ukraine.
The Russian military administration “will want to move very quickly, mainly to cut off and then occupy Kiev, in order to prevent any possible coherent, organized Ukrainian defense and, if possible, to block the movements of Ukrainian forces.” , assessed Ben Barry, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
An adviser to the Ukrainian president said an air base northwest of the capital had been occupied by Russian commandos, which Barry said would allow them to carry equipment, especially light armor, to the heart of the country to intensify their attack.
Russia’s moves along the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov and near Kharkiv in the northeast also suggest that they are seeking to encircle Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, added the same analyst, who specializes in land operations.
The United States estimated that Russia had mobilized between 150,000 and 200,000 troops around Ukraine on the eve of the invasion. Moscow can also count on tens of thousands of separatist fighters in the self-proclaimed Donbass Democratic Republics.
The Ukrainian army has a total of 196,600 men, according to the IISS’s Military Balance report released last week.
Although highly motivated to defend their country and receive new weapons, particularly Turkish-armed UAVs and US and British portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, analysts say Ukrainian military men have no chance of competing with Russia in the air and , to defend against air and missile attacks. The Ukrainian navy, with little power, just a powerful warship and a dozen patrols, pales in front of the Black Sea fleet that Russia has deployed.
Very different kind of opponent
During the eight years of the war with the pro-Russian separatists, the Ukrainian army fought static battles, waged trench warfare or artillery; it was involved in operations such as the First World War.
They have absolutely nothing to do with the way the Russian army is moving, as it appeared when it was involved in the war in Syria on the side of the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Russian forces can cover vast distances with speed; they have the ability to build floating bridges to cross rivers; and to synchronize ground maneuvers with strikes by Air Force or UAVs.
The Russian PA carried out tens of thousands of airstrikes during the war in Syria – where, according to the opposition to President Assad, it caused thousands of civilian casualties.
Tens of thousands of ground troops have also served in Syria, where significant units of the fearsome Spetsnaz were deploying, IISS recalled Ben Barry.
Russian troops have gained extensive experience in military operations in urban areas, fighting alongside Damascus forces and their allies, such as Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah. They may find it valuable if fighting breaks out in Ukrainian cities.
Analysts at the Janes Publishing Group note that Russia has used its intervention in Syria to test new or upgraded weapons systems, both air, land and naval, such as the Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighter or the Caliber-type missiles. Cruise.
“In order to prevail over Russia, the Ukrainian forces must show a very high level of tactics, be very bold and determined, have a plan superior to that of the Russian forces,” Barry said.
“The advantage the Ukrainians have is that they are fighting to defend their homeland, their territories,” he continued. “A large number of civilians volunteered to fight,” which would make it much “more difficult” for the Russians to advance in a possible civil war.
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