London Thanasis Gavos

In line with the predictions of all other major MRP polls comes Ipsos’ UK’s first such survey ahead of the July 4 election.

Keir Starmer’s Labor Party is predicted to win 453 seats, a margin of 128 seats.

Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is predicted to be reduced to 115 seats, a loss of 250 seats compared to the 2019 election.

Top ministers such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordant and Gillian Keegan would lose their seats based on this poll.

However, it is noted that 100 seats won by the Conservatives in 2019 are too marginal in terms of voting intention to formulate an assessment with certainty.

The Lib Dems are forecast to gain 38 MPs, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is down to 15, the Green Party is forecast to gain three seats, the same as Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform UK, who is expected to be elected MP (in Clacton, Essex) at his eighth attempt.

The poll was conducted between June 7-12 among a sample of 19,689 voters.