The United States and France, pillars of the NATO alliance, the defense of Ukraine’s freedom against Russia and the post-war construction of a united Europe, they are faced with nationalist forces that could undo international commitments and lead the world into uncharted territory.

Earlier this month, US President Joe Biden, flanked by President Emmanuel Macron of France, attended commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the Normandy Landings

Joe Biden made an impassioned plea for her freedom, democracy, America and the world, “then, now and always”. It was an emotional moment as Macron spoke of the “blood bond” between France and America, but just a few weeks later, the line of defense of the two leaders’ values ​​looks more fragile.

Uncertainty is at a new high in the United States, the New York Times reports, from the serious possibility that Donald Trump will return to the country’s presidency as France enters a politically turbulent period since the rise of the far-right National Rally. .

The country votes on Sunday in the first round of parliamentary elections announced by Macron to the great surprise of his compatriots after Le Pen’s triumphant victory in the European elections, which is expected to be repeated in the upcoming elections.

Macron, who will remain president after the election, has repeatedly warned of the need to create a “European powerhouse” due to Trump’s possible return, which would then make America unreliable.

During the debate Trump did not deny that, if elected for a second term, he might withdraw the United States from NATO. Last month in Dresden, Macron said a “more independent, more sovereign Europe able to defend itself and survive against all threats” was now a top priority, given that “America’s priorities are sometimes elsewhere”.

The problem for Macron now is that his ability to forge a Europe of greater defense capability and broad military integration may well be limited or even eliminated if he has to govern with the National Coalition.

A defeat in the parliamentary elections will leave him with a reduced number of MPs and unable to implement his bold international plans. The latest Ifop-Fiducial poll this week gave Macron’s party and its allies just 21% of the vote. The National Rally had a lead with 36% and the New People’s Front alliance took 28.5% of the votes.

A group of 170 French diplomats in a letter to Le Monde newspaper last Sunday warned that “our opponents will see the victory of the far right as a weakening of France” and an invitation “to attack Europe, including militarily”.

They didn’t mention Russia by name, but their message was pretty clear. The Kremlin, which has long had close ties to Ms Le Pen, the long-time far-right presidential candidate, and her party, has said it is “closely monitoring the progress of right-wing forces”.

The rise of the National Rally to high office, which is however not certain, would mark a turning point in Europe.

France, together with Germany, is the cornerstone and driving force of the European Union. It is not Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Hungary that is dangerous to the European project, but if France turns against a united Europe, the possibility of a wider breakup of the 27-nation bloc increases as its core begins to unravel.

That Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany is also weakened by a faltering economy, a fragile coalition and a rising far-right party is a further challenge for Europe.

Jordan Bardela, the 28-year-old protégé of Le Pen who is likely to become prime minister if the National Rally wins, insists he will not overturn France’s international commitments. He has vowed to continue supporting Ukraine, but has ruled out moving French forces to Ukrainian soil or providing long-range missiles capable of hitting Russia.

For his part, Macron has declared that “nothing should be ruled out” in relation to sending Western forces, such as military trainers, to Ukraine. France has already given SCALP cruise missiles that could hit Russia from Ukraine and is expected to send more, although this is now considered uncertain.

Despite Bardella’s assurances, the National Rally is at its core nationalist and inspired by authoritarian leaders such as President Vladimir Putin of Russia. At the same time, her political positions include the return of powers to national governments from Brussels, while due to her xenophobic attitude she is determined to restore some border controls in the Schengen area of ​​the 29 European countries that have officially abolished the borders between them.

The party, in short, is opposed to what Macron has spent his political life advocating, while the United States has spent much of the post-war period advocating: a Europe moving toward ever-closer union, away from nationalism for defense of peace.

“We must be clear about the fact that our Europe is mortal,” Macron told an audience of government ministers, European ambassadors and other officials at the Sorbonne in April. “He can die. He can die, and whether he dies depends entirely on our choices.”

For Trump, unlike Biden, NATO and the European Union are of little value. During his campaign this year, he said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that fails to meet defense spending guidelines.

NATO and the European Union have been the building blocks of the post-war interconnected system built by the United States and Europe to spread prosperity and peace. They are resilient institutions but, between the war in Ukraine and rising nationalism, they face daunting challenges.