But for how much longer? So far Israel and Hezbollah have avoided open war. But will it continue like this? The signs of the times are inauspicious. After Canada and other countries, yesterday Saudi Arabia also called on its citizens in Lebanon to leave the country. A few days ago Hezbollah released a video of possible targets in Israel. Drone footage shows various military and other targets, including the port of Haifa. From the Israeli side, not a day passes without warnings of “total war” on the border between the two countries.

“We have seen a gradual escalation of fighting basically since October last year between Hezbollah and the Israeli army,” summarizes Michael Bauer, head of the Beirut office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. “Among other things we have seen repeated attempts by Hezbollah to shoot down Israeli drones. At least in one case they succeeded. So we’ve already seen a whole series of escalation steps, which means we’re at a level where things can go wrong even if both sides don’t want it to.”

“Point of No Return”

Hezbollah has about 30,000 active fighters and up to 20,000 reservists, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington as of last March. The way it works is based on a highly structured system of hierarchies in terms of how decisions are made even for subordinate commanders. In the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel the militia took less than 28 seconds to set up a rocket launcher and retreat again. Its operational capabilities have since expanded. “So the level of escalation is high,” Bauer points out. Peter Lidl, an expert on Middle East conflicts at the Berlin-based German Institute for Science and Policy, agrees. “These constant attempts by one side to intimidate the other can of course lead to reaching a kind of point of no return at some point. With one side saying we need to react harder, which in turn prompts the other side to hit harder. Right now we see that danger.”

“Israel is acutely aware of this risk,” says Heiko Vimen of the Lebanon-focused NGO International Crisis Group, who has spoken to well-connected Israelis in the military. “In their view it is extremely dangerous to attack an enemy that has been preparing for this very attack for 20 years,” he points out. “They also have doubts about the idea of ​​attacking the militia with an army that is somewhat exhausted after several months of war with Hamas. They might try not to cross Hezbollah’s red lines, but where they are, no one knows. And by the time you find out, it’s almost too late.”

The attitude of the USA is decisive

If the London-based Palestinian newspaper Al Quds is to be believed, the regime in Tehran, which has Israel’s destruction inscribed high on its banner, is also trying to prevent a major war in the Middle East. For this reason, the newspaper argues, he has instructed his regional allies, mainly Yemen’s Houthi militias, to slightly increase the escalation on their soil. In recent days, the Houthis have somewhat stepped up their attacks on international shipping, which the newspaper interpreted as a way for Tehran to warn Israel and the West of the possible consequences of a wider conflict.

Above all, however, it depends on the attitude of the US, says Heiko Wimen. “They have not yet given Israel the green light for an attack which for Israel is a prerequisite for a successful conflict. The flow of arms from the US to Israel must be unrestricted. Without that, Israel is unable to conduct such a War”. Concerns also come from Israel’s neighboring countries, Egypt and Jordan, who fear destabilization from such a war. In Jordan, fundamentalist Islamists are gaining ground as a consequence of the war in Gaza.

Editor: Irini Anastasopoulou