Vladimir Putin is a “genius”, said Donald Trump, on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So what has this “genius” achieved? The above question is answered by Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman in the article entitled “Putin’s grand plan unfolds”.
Four days after the invasion, Russian troops also failed to win the quick victory Putin had been counting on. The Ukrainian resistance is much tougher than the Russian leader expected, as the Ukrainian army counterattacks and the population mobilizes. Captive Russian soldiers have been filmed complaining that they were told they were going on a training mission.
The international response was also tougher, more coordinated and united than Putin had negotiated. Russia is cut off from the world financial system. Europe’s largest airspace has been closed to Russian airlines. It was a historic turning point in German foreign and security policy – with Berlin eventually sending weapons to Ukraine and committing to spending more than 2 percent of its Gross Domestic Product on defense. The NATO alliance has been given a new sense of purpose. Russia is turning into a pariah, with China failing to support it at the UN – instead abstaining.
Inside Russia, panicked citizens rush to withdraw money from banks. The ruble has plummeted in value, as has the Russian stock market. Small anti-war demonstrations have broken out across the country, with protesters being arrested immediately. Local figures, oligarchs and even the children of some Russian officials have condemned the conflict. Putin’s officials themselves appear visibly embarrassed as they take orders in front of television cameras. The Russian official media has been left in an unbelievable position to deny the extent of the war, as they continue to insist that it is merely a special military operation to support the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is receiving a level of international admiration and recognition that is unprecedented since the country gained its independence in 1991. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president who was once mocked as a comedian, has won international recognition for her for her leadership attitude. The courage shown on the streets of Kiev is in stark contrast to the cowardice of Putin, who is too scared of the virus to allow his own officials to approach him within breathing distance. Calls are growing for Ukraine to embark on a fast track to EU membership.
Putin managed to do all this in just four days. Genius, pure genius! But a humiliated and trapped Putin is likely to become even more dangerous and ruthless. This was underlined on Sunday, when the Russian leader put his country’s nuclear forces on alert.
Unable to achieve the easy victory he expected, Putin seems unlikely to back down. His pride, paranoia and personal survival show the use of increasingly radical and dangerous tactics. A senior Western official predicted that “Putin will ‘dig’ himself and that will become very bad.”
Western security analysts have warned of the possible use of thermobaric missiles in Ukraine – “flame” bombs that Russia has deployed in Chechnya and Syria and could cause huge casualties. Putin’s nuclear threats, although clearly intended to intimidate, cannot be completely ruled out given his mental state.
As Putin himself seems highly unlikely to back down, there seem to be few peaceful ways out of this conflict. The announcement that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have agreed to meet on the border with Belarus offers a glimmer of hope. However, there is still no indication that Putin is willing to back down from his maximalist demands that would lead to further fragmentation of Ukrainian territory and the de facto end of the country’s independence. The fact that the man originally appointed to lead the Russian delegation is a junior former official, distinguished for his extreme nationalism, is not a promising sign.
Perhaps the only real path to peace would be for the Russian ruling elite to force Putin to step down. The videos released by their leader, which show him humiliating members of the security service as he forces them to support his policies, are intended to show his absolute power. But they also highlight doubts within his own inner circle.
However, the current Russian system is even less collective than in the post-Stalinist Soviet Union. High-ranking Soviet officials were able to force Nikita Khrushchev to step down in 1964. But Putin rules more like a pro-Soviet tsar. It is difficult to see how the internal opposition can mobilize against him, within the government.
It is possible, however, that as the human and economic costs of war increase, it will become more difficult to contain public protests against the conflict. Russian troops inside Ukraine may also be discouraged as they suffer casualties and are ordered to use brutal tactics against civilians. Eventually a combination of elite stress, military failure and popular discontent could force the Russian leader to resign. But – for the time being – the danger that Putin poses to Ukraine, Russia and the world is only increasing.
Sigmalive
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