It was an insulting result for the opposition: Winner of the presidential election in Venezuela the current president Nicolas Maduro is declared, as the government-controlled Electoral Commission of Elections (CNE) announced on Monday. According to official data, Maduro won 51.2% of the vote compared to 44.2% for opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez. And yet, just days before the election, the opposition seemed to have secured a lead of 20 percentage points, according to all reliable polls.

Since 2013 o Nicolas Maduro he is the “strong man” of the country. Already his previous re-election under non-transparent conditions, in 2018, had caused intense doubt. Most Western countries not only did not recognize his victory, but also imposed sanctions on Venezuela.

“The electoral commission, the judiciary and the institutions in general in Venezuela have turned into levers of oppression for the Maduro regime,” Ana Solis de Stange, professor of International Relations at the University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg, tells Deutsche Welle. Along the same lines, Zabine Kurtenbach, partner of the GIGA Institute for Latin America, states to Deutsche Welle that “the result is not surprising. It is disappointing, unreliable and shows a lack of respect for the Venezuelan people. Moreover, this tactic of the regime excludes any prospect of a democratic transition, and this is the most complicated issue in terms of assessing the election result. It remains to be seen how the Venezuelan people will react.”

First demonstrations against the regime

All eyes now turn to the opposition. Will he call the people to take to the streets in an organized way, demonstrating their indignation at the election result? The first reports speak of at least two deaths and dozens of arrests during the mobilizations that are taking place in the capital Caracas, but also in other states of the country. Before the polls, Maduro had openly threatened a “bloodbath” should anti-government protests break out.

The military supports Maduro

Maria Corina Machado – former head of the opposition, which the regime had excluded from the electoral process – directly calls on the army to intervene. This is considered unlikely, as Maduro has secured the support of the military by granting them important positions and financial privileges. Many believe that the close connection between the government and the armed forces is a brake on the launch of democratic reforms.

“The military remains an important factor in Venezuela,” points out Zabine Kurtenbach, recalling that the previous leader of the opposition, Juan Guaido, had also tried to secure the support of the military. “The military leadership in particular is closely linked to the regime, but it is difficult to assess what is happening at the lower levels,” says the policy scientist. “The army is not a single block, there are different protagonists, who control each other.”

Congratulations and threats

The role of foreign leaders, such as the presidents of Brazil, Lula da Silva, Colombia, Gustavo Petro, and Chile, Gabriel Borich, may prove important. All three are considered strong voices of a moderate and democratic socialism with resonance in the wider region. “If you win, you stay. If you lose, you will leave” Lula da Silva warned Maduro before the elections. Brazil’s president might be the one who can step in, prompting Maduro to step down.

The authoritarian regimes of Cuba and Nicaragua sent Nicolas Maduro “congratulations” on his re-election. Russia calls on the opposition in Venezuela “to accept its defeat”, as a representative of the Kremlin said. On the other hand, the ultra-conservative president of Argentina, Javier Millay, calls Maduro a “dictator” and calls on the military to move to overthrow him.

“Such a reaction is rather counterproductive,” says Zabine Kurtenbach. “He is moving to the level of Donald Trump, who was saying about Venezuela that ‘all possibilities are open.’ And this probably makes it easier for Maduro, as he reactivates negative stereotypes of the past.”

In the presidential elections, conditions of censorship and oppression prevailed. According to the NGO Espacio Público (“Public Space”), since 2016 the regime has shut down at least 200 radio stations and several television networks. More than 100 newspapers were forced to suspend publication. “In the last ten years, the state propaganda of the Maduro regime has become more and more powerful” underlines Ania Osterhaus, head of the NGO “Reporters Without Borders” (RSF). In the world ranking of the organization for the freedom of the press, Venezuela occupies only 156th place, out of a total of 180 countries.

Rich country, poor people

It is a tragic contradiction that most of the world lives in poverty, even though Venezuela is rich in natural resources. In 2024, the country had the largest oil reserves in the world (304 billion barrels), while Saudi Arabia was limited to second place (260 billion barrels).

However, hyperinflation and difficulties in supply chains have almost wiped out citizens’ purchasing power. Many times supermarkets lack basic goods, such as milk, flour, sugar and cooking oil. The causes of the crisis are multifactorial, from incorrect political manipulations to the structural problems of the economy, as well as international sanctions.

Consequently, many are forced to leave the country. According to United Nations data, by November 2023 more than 7.7 million Venezuelans had sought refuge in other Latin American or Caribbean countries. About three million have fled to neighboring Colombia, many to neighboring Brazil, over a million to Peru. According to moderate estimates, at least another three million people are preparing to leave the country as soon as possible.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou