Russia and Ukraine have agreed to establish so-called humanitarian corridors in regions under fire from Moscow in the week-long invasion on Thursday.
The agreement, still without clear details, was announced by the Russian and Ukrainian delegations that met in Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, throughout the afternoon and early evening (morning and afternoon in Brasilia).
Shortly before the announcement, President Vladimir Putin had said in a televised address that such corridors were already guaranteed by the Russian military. In the speech, he maintained his intention to see the end of his war, which he said was going “according to plan” despite apparent logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance.
Humanitarian corridors or security zones imply a ceasefire, something that, as seen in the Bosnian war in the 1990s, is a rather precarious instrument. In addition, they can be used to vacate areas of civilians potentially hostile to invaders, without immediate guarantees that they will one day return to their homes.
A variant of the tactic was seen in the Syrian civil war, when Putin intervened to save the allied dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. There, the Russians mounted a destructive siege of Aleppo, considered criminal by many, to root out Islamic radicals. At one point, they offered humanitarian corridors for the remnants to leave.
This facilitates the eventual military occupation of territories. Taking one of the axes of the Russian attack, the Ukrainian south: the siege that forms on Mariupol, the last bastion preventing the land connection between the Donbass (an area to the east dominated since 2014 by pro-Russian rebels) and Crimea (annexed by Putin in 2014), suggests a potentially devastating attack on the city.
The eventual withdrawal of civilians there could further Putin’s presumed plan to remove the area from Ukrainian sovereignty, for example. It would be costly and wear out, but better than killing a lot of people in the city with almost 500,000 inhabitants.
Something like this is not to be expected in Kiev, the capital of 3 million inhabitants, although the siege is stationed there some 25 km from the city. As in Mariupol, the bombing is more at a distance, with the incursions of soldiers from the early days of the military campaign being left behind.
About 1 million of its 44 million inhabitants have already left Ukraine for Poland and other neighboring countries. As of Wednesday, the government in Kiev counted about 2,000 civilians dead, without revealing military casualties. The Russians only speak of 498 fallen soldiers.
In any case, these are incipient scenarios. The two delegations have agreed to a third round of negotiations, at a date to be determined, which is better than a complete break – although both sides may want to buy time, for different reasons.
On Monday (28), the conversation between them came to nothing. There was an expectation leaked by the Russian Foreign Ministry that a ceasefire could be negotiated, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian demands for surrender were unacceptable.
One of the Ukrainian negotiators, David Arajamia, posted on Facebook before the meeting precisely the issue of humanitarian corridors.
