Analysts estimate that Hamas may no longer believe that holding hostages gives it an advantage over Israel
Hamas killing of six Israeli hostages marks the opening of a bloody new cycle of violence in the Gaza war as it seems that the Islamist organization has decided to kill the hostages when the Israeli troops attempt to rescue them.
Israel announced that the six hostages were killed by Hamas shortly before the Israeli army arrived at the scene.
The new tactics of Hamas which for Israel are equivalent to “psychological horror” are expected to further fuel anger in Israeli society. Over the past three days, protesters have flooded the streets, accusing Netanyahu of what they say is sacrificing Israeli civilians to stay in power, as right-wing members of his coalition have threatened to topple the government if he ends the war.
But it is not yet clear whether they will force Netanyahu to change Israel’s approach to the war in Gaza.
Some analysts believe that unlike in the past, Hamas may no longer believe that holding hostages gives it an advantage over Israel.
“Hamas took the issue of hostages out of the equation. He knows that this Israeli government is not interested in any kind of hostage release deal,” Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, told CNN.
In a statement late on Monday, Hamas spokesman Abu Obaidah said the new directives came into effect after an “incident” in Nuseirat, which appeared to refer to an IDF operation in June that rescued four Israeli hostages from a refugee camp in central Gaza.
The raid, during which 274 Palestinians were killed it took place in the morning when the streets were full of people shopping in a nearby market. Some of the Hamas fighters were killed and the IDF successfully recovered the hostages alive, further weakening Hamas’ negotiating leverage with Israel.
Since then, the IDF has rescued one more hostage – Farhan Al-Qadi, 52, a Bedouin Israeli citizen who was pulled from a tunnel in Gaza last week.
When Hamas took about 250 people hostage from southern Israel on Oct. 7, “they thought they could use them for a prisoner exchange deal,” Mustafa said. Although a swap deal was in place as early as November, a new one has not been reached 10 months later.
Turning point
The successful rescues may have helped Netanyahu argue that Israel’s twin war goals of destroying Hamas and returning the hostages can be pursued simultaneously, allaying cries for a ceasefire deal for the hostages.
But after the killing of the six hostages, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets on Monday to demand that Netanyahu’s government strike a deal to free the hostages, in one of the biggest protests since the start of the war. Many wondered whether the nationwide outrage might be enough to pressure him.
By contrast, a defiant and belligerent Netanyahu in his first statements after the bodies were recovered appeared even more determined to impose his strategy on Gaza. He said Israel would retaliate strongly against Hamas for killing the six hostages, hinting that the response would be similar to the strike against Hezbollah in July that killed the Iran-backed group’s top commander Fuad Shukr.
He reiterated his commitment to fight until Hamas is defeated and reiterated his refusal to withdraw troops from the Gaza-Egypt border – a sticking point that threatens to derail the deal talks once again.
Although Netanyahu has refused to withdraw troops from the Philadelphia Corridor after pressure, analysts say the killing of the six hostages by Hamas was a turning point, leading many in the country to question whether Israel is overstepping its bounds in achieving the its military might and whether this could endanger the more than 100 hostages still being held in Gaza.
“What many Israelis have seen is that going after Hamas does not mean returning the hostages. It prevents the return of the hostages,” Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political analyst and lecturer at Reichman University in Tel Aviv, told CNN.
“It became very clear that the presence of the IDF played a direct role in the decision of Hamas fighters to kill them,” he said. “The feeling that the Netanyahu government is incompetent, that Netanyahu is doing all this for his own reasons, is now much stronger for many people. So I think it’s a turning point.”
Nimrod Novik, a fellow at the Israel Political Forum and a former senior adviser to the late Prime Minister Shimon Peres, said many Israelis were faced with two realizations: The death of the six hostages and, after Netanyahu’s speech, “the realization that Netanyahu is determined to seek an unlimited occupation of Gaza.”
New red line
The deaths of the six hostages also sparked the latest spat between Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallad. According to Israeli media reports, the two men clashed bitterly over whether, under any ceasefire agreement, the Israeli military would have to leave the Philadelphia corridor.
Gallant reportedly told Netanyahu that insisting on that condition means “there will be no deal and no hostages released.”
Regardless, the cabinet went ahead to vote on the plans presented by Netanyahu, approving them by an eight-to-one vote, with Gallant the only dissenter.
Novick, Peres’ former adviser, said the new insistence on the Philadelphia Corridor is merely symbolic.
Staying on the runway “has no safety value,” Novick said.
If nothing else, a seizure of the corridor — which runs next to densely populated cities — risks endangering Israeli troops, as Israel’s previous occupation of it, which ended in 2005, showed, Novik warned.
Since the issue of the corridor was raised last month, Hamas has said it will not agree to Netanyahu’s red line.
“At this point, they cannot accept anything more than the demands they are asking for now: A complete cessation of hostilities and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops,” Mustafa said. “If they accept anything less than what they demand, it would be political suicide for the movement.”
Netanyahu’s insistence on keeping troops along the corridor could also lead to further tension between Israel and the United States, which has insisted during months of negotiations that Israel must withdraw completely from Gaza after the war.
Asked Monday if Netanyahu had done enough to reach a deal, President Joe Biden said simply: “No.”
Source :Skai
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