The miracle, which the chancellor expected Olaf Solzfrom Potsdam, incidentally his place of residence, finally came. According to the first estimates of the election result in the state of Brandenburg, the Social Democrats (SPD) hold first place, with percentages of around 31.7%, leaving behind the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with a percentage of 29.3% and refuting the polls so far.

No cause for celebration for her Christian Democratic Opposition (CDU) of Friedrich Mertz, since the result in this particular state is only 11.7%, about three and a half points down, compared to 2019.

Marginally in third place can be found the new Sara Wagenknecht Alliance with 12%, which essentially leads to the emptying of the Left (die Linke), which loses about seven points and remains with 4% below the electoral “ladder” to enter the local parliament. A reduction of more than half of their forces has also been suffered by the Greens with 4.5%, while negligible, as in the rest of eastern Germany, are the percentages of the Liberals with 1.8%.

The above numbers were given by his immediate first estimate second German channel ZDF. The corresponding numbers of the ARD network are as follows:

SPD: 31.2%, AfD: 29.8%, CDU: 11.8, BSW: 12.1, Greens: 5%, die Linke: 3.1%

In other words, a battle is expected for the third place, while the Greens will have to wait to see if they will finally enter the Parliament by overcoming the electoral ladder.

The turnout was impressively high here too with 74%, as had also happened in Saxony and Thuringia, a sign of the intense polarization caused by the focus on issues such as immigration and Germany’s “involvement” in the Ukraine war, which every other rather popular in the east of the country.

Relief in chancery

This result does not completely remove the pressure on Chancellor Soltz, after the poor results in Saxony and Thuringia. It also comes at the end of a week full of negative economic news, including the postponement of a major US Intel plant in Magdeburg and rumors of mass layoffs at Volkswagen plants in Germany. However, it saves him from the taste of another defeat, which would increase the intensity of the complaints about him. It also shows that Prime Minister Dietmar Weinkte’s formula of democratic rallying against the far right has finally worked.

There is also the political symbolism. Constantly since 1990, when elections are held there, Brandenburg has been a “red castle”, the SPD’s “outpost” in the former East Germany. What was held can be viewed as a success, one of the few for the SPD in recent times. But it is clear that the very negative results of his partners in the federal government will strengthen the temptation to diversify both, threatening the cohesion of a tricolor government, which often seems to be floundering without a concrete route anyway.

The political map is changing

The government and the chancellor may now take some breaths, but the 30% of the AfD cannot leave room for complacency. As much as some may invoke the “particularities” of the five new states, the bottom line is that the political map of the country is changing significantly. The extreme right secures double-digit percentages in most states of the country, i.e. also in the west, the two smallest parties in the government are floundering, with the Liberals on the verge of extinction, which also applies to the Left, which seems unable to overcome the shock of the departure of Sarah Wagenknecht.

The latter is now turning into a regulator of developments throughout the eastern side of the country and shows that she will have no problem entering the Bundestag with her new party in September 2025. The question is who will take the step to work with her.

Of course, a similar question applies to the Alternative for Germany. It is an open secret that there are some in the ranks of Christendom who think they are merely helping it by isolating it. The Christian Democrats see that they may be ahead in the national opinion polls, but they are by no means generating any current of enthusiasm. The Brandenburg result is a reversal of a winning streak, and they know that if they win a year from now they will have to govern a country facing significant structural problems and a period of more general malaise, not overcome by Merkel-style prescriptions of “we pass” well and you can trust me.”

In any case, as of tonight, Germany has entered a pre-election year, which will have plenty of surprises and upheavals.