As the US election approaches people are waiting to see who will be the next president of America. Will Kamala Harris follow in Joe Biden’s footsteps with her belief that “in these turbulent times, it is clear that America cannot back down”? Or will it be Donald Trump with his hope that “Americanism, not globalization” will take the lead?

With regional powers going their own way, authoritarian regimes forging their own alliances and devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere raise questions about the value of Washington’s role.

So what will be the global consequences after the election result?

Military force

“Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with his threats to leave NATO ringing in everyone’s ears,” Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO, told the BBC.

Washington’s defense spending amounts to two-thirds of the military budgets of NATO’s 31 other members. Also, the US spends more on its military than the 10 countries in the table below combined including China and Russia.

Trump boasts that he is pushing hard to force other NATO countries to meet their spending targets of 2% of their GDP — only 23 of the member states met that target by 2024.

If Kamala Harris wins, Rose Gottemoeller believes “NATO will undoubtedly be in good hands in Washington.” But he also warns “She will be ready to continue working with NATO and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not bow to pressure [να δαπανήσει] in Europe”.

But Harris’ White House team will have to govern with the Senate or House, which could soon be in Republican hands and less inclined to support the wars. There is a growing sense that regardless of who becomes president, pressure will mount on Kiev to find a way to end this war, as US lawmakers become increasingly reluctant to approve massive aid packages.

Whatever happens, Ms. Gottemoeller says, “I don’t believe NATO should collapse.” Europe will need to “step forward to lead”.

The peacemaker

The next US president will have to work in a world facing the greatest risk of great power confrontation since the Cold War.

“The US remains the most important international actor in matters of peace and security,” says Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. However, he warns that “its power to help resolve conflicts is diminished.”

As time goes by it becomes more and more difficult to end a war comments the BBC columnist. “The deadly conflict is becoming more intractable, with great power competition accelerating and middle powers on the rise,” says Comfort Ero. Wars like Ukraine attract multiple forces and spark flare-ups like the one in Sudan as regional players clash with competing interests and some are more invested in war than peace.

America is losing the moral high ground, comments Ero. “Global actors are noticing that one pattern is being applied to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and another to Israel’s actions in Gaza. The war in Sudan has seen terrible atrocities, but it is treated as a secondary issue,” he adds.

A Harris victory, according to Ero, “represents continuity with the current administration.” If Trump gets out, he “may give Israel an even freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere and has indicated he could try to cut a Ukraine deal with Moscow by giving Kiev its head.”

As for the Middle East, the Democratic nominee has repeatedly said of Mr Biden’s firm support for Israel’s “right to defend itself”. But he also stressed that “the killing of innocent Palestinians must stop.”

Trump also said it was time to “return to peace and stop killing people.” However, he reportedly told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”

The Republican candidate prides himself on being epeacemaker. “I will bring peace to the Middle East and soon,” he promised in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya TV on Sunday night. He also promised to extend the Abraham Accords of 2020. These bilateral agreements normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, but were widely seen as having marginalized the Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.

When it comes to Ukraine, Trump has never hidden his admiration for the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has made it clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and along with the massive US military and financial support. “I’m going out. We have to get out,” he insisted at a recent rally.

Instead, Kamala Harris said on the matter: “I’m proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand by Ukraine. And I will work to ensure that Ukraine prevails in this war.”

But Ms. Ero worries that, regardless of who is elected, things could get worse in the world.

Business with Beijing

About US-China relations both top Republicans and Democrats are aggressive. Both see Beijing trying to eclipse America as the most important power.

But leading China scholar Rana Mitter, a British historian who holds the ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at Harvard’s Kennedy School, sees some differences between them. Kamala Harris says, “relationships will probably grow in a linear fashion from where they are now.” If Trump wins, we have a more “fluid scenario.” For example, on Taiwan, Mitter points to Trump’s ambivalence about whether to defend an island far from America.

China’s leaders, however, believe that both Harris and Trump will be tough on the issue.

Climate crisis

“The US election is of enormous importance not only to its citizens but to the entire world because of the pressing imperative of the climate and nature crisis,” says Mary Robinson, president of the Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela , and former President of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

But as Hurricanes Milton and Helene raged, Trump derided environmental plans and policies to deal with this climate emergency as “one of the biggest frauds of all time.” Many expect him to pull out of the 2015 Paris climate accord as he did in his first term.

However, Ms Robinson believes Trump cannot stop the momentum now gathering. “He cannot stop the US energy transition and withdraw the billions of dollars in green subsidies … nor can he stop the tireless non-federal climate movement.”

He also urged Harris, who has yet to form her own stance on the issue, to step up “to show leadership, build on the momentum of recent years and push other major broadcasters to step up.”

Humanitarian leadership

“The outcome of the US election is of enormous importance given the unparalleled influence the United States wields, not just through its military and economic power, but through its ability to lead with moral authority on the world stage,” says Martin Griffiths, a veteran. conflict mediator who, until recently, was the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.

He sees more light if Harris wins and says “a return to a Trump presidency characterized by isolationism and unilateral action will only serve to deepen global instability.”

But he is also critical of the Biden-Harris administration, citing its “reluctance” on the worsening situation in the Middle East.

Biden and his top officials have consistently called for more aid to flow into Gaza, and at times have made the difference. But critics say the aid and pressure has never been enough.

The US is the only major donor to the UN system. In 2022, it provided a record $18.1bn (£13.9bn).

But in his first term, Trump defunded many UN agencies and withdrew from the World Health Organization. Other donors tried to fill in the gaps – what Trump wanted to happen.

But Martin Griffiths still believes America is an indispensable power.

“In a time of global conflict and uncertainty, the world longs for the US to rise to the challenge of responsible, principled leadership… We demand more. We deserve more. And we dare to hope for more” he concluded.