THE Donald Trump won the election by reminding that he has done more for Israel than any other president. The government in Tel Aviv never hid its support for his own candidacy, just as it did not hide its satisfaction with the outcome of the election, while the “Axis of Resistance” countries around Iran reacted by declaring “indifference” to the result.

The question is whether he will live up to his expectations Benjamin Netanyahu and of his government with his actions from now on. Most political observers have no doubt that Trump wishes to continue handling Middle East politics his way.

Three goals for the Middle East

“Trump likes to describe himself as a negotiator,” he told DW Neil Killiama Middle East and North Africa expert from London-based think tank Chatham House. “He’ll want to pick up where he left off.”

In his view, Trump has three major political plans for the Middle East. First, it will focus on ending Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Perhaps by January 20th what he said before the election will have happened: “I will support Israel’s right to win the war against terrorism. They must win. To finish the job”

An end to the war in Gaza, the establishment of a future administration of the Gaza Strip and the possible creation of a Palestinian state are likely intertwined with Trump’s second vision for the Middle East.

The Covenants of Abraham

“Trump will want to breathe new life into the Abraham Accords and increase the number of states that have normalized their relationship with Israel. Saudi Arabia is his main target, but Riyadh will resist unless Trump commits to a long-term plan to create a Palestinian state.”

The US-brokered Abraham Accords between Arab countries and Israel were launched during Trump’s first term. In 2020 and 2021, Israel normalized diplomatic relations with Morocco, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Sudan.

Several analysts believe that Trump’s character and strong personality is something that gives him an advantage because he has some kind of charm in the eyes of many Arabs. Ashraf el Asari, an Egyptian Middle East political analyst, told DW that he expects “to witness more prosperity between Trump and Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan, because of the political chemistry between him Trump himself and the Arab leaders.”

The difficult relationship with Iran

The big question is how the relationship with Iran will shape up now. According to Killiam, reaching a deal with Iran is Trump’s third major policy goal. “To achieve this, Trump will apply maximum pressure knowing that Iran is currently weakened and the specter of a major Israeli strike against its leadership and nuclear program will make it more flexible and willing to make a major deal.” , is the expert’s opinion.

The US president-elect has taken a hard line against Iran-backed armed groups and is likely to threaten a heavy blood toll again if US personnel or interests in the region are targeted.

But he will be unwilling to drag the US into a direct confrontation with Iran, even as the relationship between Israel and Iran heats up dangerously.

Republicans have always advocated a more militant stance, including support for Israeli military strikes against sensitive Iranian targets.

However, Trump “may consider talks with Tehran to promote de-escalation if he can present himself as having accomplished the unthinkable that no American president has done — achieving peace in the Middle East.”

Edited by: Kostas Argyros