A cargo plane belonging to the German parcel service company DHL crashes in Lithuania, two submarine data cables are destroyed in the Baltic Sea, and a pro-Russian far-right extremist suddenly wins a run-off election for President in Romania. Three notable cases. Although nothing has been proven, suspicions fall on Russia for hybrid attacks, according to the intelligence services of several countries.

“Hybrid warfare” is the extension of purely military war operations with the help of espionage, sabotage, cyber-attacks, electoral interference, propaganda or disinformation campaigns aimed at weakening and destabilizing the enemy from within. In particular:

Espionage

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European countries have expelled around 500 Russian diplomats. Britain’s secret service MI5 accuses at least 400 of them of being spies. Many Russian embassies and consulates general are said to be equipped with state-of-the-art communications and spying technology.

Of course, such a thing cannot be proven, since the buildings are considered Russian territory and enjoy the status of diplomatic immunity.

Sabotage

Last week, a Chinese cargo ship with a Russian captain was said to have damaged two underwater data cables. A similar incident occurred in October 2023. Last month, there was an arson attack on a warehouse in London where aid supplies for Ukraine were stored. In July, a parcel went up in flames at the DHL center in Leipzig. There is no evidence here either, but Western intelligence services are turning their attention to Russia.

Cyber ​​attacks

The Federal Information Security Agency warns that the level of cyber threats is also “higher than ever”. Espionage and sabotage are booming on the internet. In particular, it is even reported that “the number of attacks by pro-Russian hackers” has increased dramatically. The websites of institutions or companies are flooded with malicious software that can hardly work anymore.

Misinformation and propaganda

Another important area of ​​activity of hybrid warfare is the attempt to influence public opinion in the target country. For this reason false information is spread or troll groups operate on social media or even through Russian media abroad.

In early 2024, the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs uncovered 50,000 fake user accounts that were spreading false information and pro-Russian views on social networks.

Interference in elections and political processes

Western intelligence agencies accuse Russia of directly or indirectly influencing elections in dozens of electoral contests in Europe and North and South America. For example, the Russian foreign broadcaster RT is said to have produced videos on controversial topics such as aid to Ukraine, immigration and the economy during the US presidential election campaign, which were in turn distributed by right-wing American bloggers.

Attacks on politicians?

In theory, attacks against enemy politicians fall under the category of hybrid warfare. Recent examples are the attacks on Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko in the UK in 2006 or Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in 2018.

Experts believe that such attacks will increase in the future and for this reason states should now be equipped accordingly.

Edited by: Maria Rigoutsou