The overthrow of the dictator Bashar al-Assad in Damascus by the jihadists led thousands of Syrians residing in Turkey to make their way back. Images of caravans of cars on the Turkish-Syrian border were striking over the weekend. But what will happen to the Syrians living in EU territories and especially in Germany?

Over one million people of Syrian origin live in Germany and the vast majority are recognized refugees or under subsidiary protection or asylum seekers. According to the German sub. Insider Nancy Feser it is premature to draw conclusions and make decisions about the fate of Germany’s Syrians, while any talk now about repatriation is “not serious”. In the meantime, the freeze on the examination of asylum applications from Syria has already been announced, with many open questions regarding the practical implementation of this decision.

In the same line moves the German sub. Foreign Affairs Analena Burbock, expressing uncertainty about the development of the new security situation in Syria but also concern about micro-political expediencies in Germany in view of early elections. “Anyone who tries to exploit the situation in Syria, whose future is unclear, for partisan reasons has lost touch with the reality in the Middle East,” said Analena Burbock from Berlin.

What do the Christian Democrats who are ahead in the opinion polls say?

At the same time, leading politicians of the Christian Democrats, such as Jens Spahn, go one level further and not only propose the repatriation of Syrians but also the provision of a one-time allowance of 1,000 euros to those who wish to return back, even with special flights.

As for the leader of the Christian Democrats and chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz – who, according to opinion polls, has the best chance of election – he is more careful in his wording and focuses on cooperation with Turkey on developments in Syria.

As Mertz said, “communication with Turkey is necessary to analyze the situation and draw common conclusions”, acknowledging the burden that Turkey has shouldered in recent years in managing migration and refugee flows.

Numbers that reflect a new reality

To understand the scale of the challenges for German refugee and immigration policy, a look at the official figures is enough. According to the Federal Statistical Office, almost 1,000,000 Syrians live in Germany based on official records.

Over 321,000 are recognized refugees under the Geneva Convention and nearly 33,000 receive subsidiary protection. From 1.1.2024 to 30.11.2024, 74,971 new asylum applications have been submitted for consideration and to date 47,270 of them are pending before the competent German authorities.

However, official data regarding the integration of the newly arrived from Syria into German society and the German labor market in recent years are also of interest. About 210,000 are working and paying contributions to German funds, 250,000 are looking for work and 150,000 are officially declared unemployed. About half a million Syrians in Germany receive social benefits. 160,000 have acquired German citizenship and a German passport.