During his first term as president of the USAo Donald Trump he was widely considered her friend Taiwanhaving boosted support for the island through arms sales and upgraded diplomatic visits, as CNN notes in its analysis.

But that positive attitude was nowhere to be found on the campaign trail, with Trump repeatedly claiming that the self-governing democracy should pay the US more for “protection” and that it has “stolen” America’s semiconductor business.

That is why Taiwan is preparing for a much more volatile relationship with Washington, its most important guarantor of security, now that Trump has achieved a historic political comeback.

“I think most people are worried”Professor Chen Ming-chi, a former senior adviser to Taiwan’s National Security Council, told CNN. “Because of Trump’s unpredictable behavior, we don’t know whether Taiwan will be safer or more vulnerable under his second term.”

What is certain, analysts say, is that Taiwan will have to pay more for its defense and step up engagement with the Trump administration to bolster American support.

Its ruling Communist Party China it considers Taiwan part of its territory, despite the fact that it has never controlled it, and has vowed to take the island by force if necessary. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is legally required to provide the island with the means to defend itself and supplies Taipei with defensive weapons.

Taiwan’s government has expressed confidence in bilateral relations, citing long-standing cross-party support for the island. Three senior Taiwanese security officials told CNN that there are clear channels of communication through which the two sides discuss substantive issues, and that military communication channels in particular have “flourished.”

In a statement issued after the November election, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te stressed the importance of Taiwan’s friendship with the US and said Taipei was willing to be “the most reliable partner”.

Experts say Taiwan will be closely watching Trump’s foreign and defense appointments, his response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and his demands from allies for clues about the future of the relationship with the country.

The stakes in that relationship are higher than ever as Beijing steps up its military intimidation of Taiwan, sending fighter jets and warships near the island on an almost daily basis and conducting large-scale exercises to punish what it calls “separatist acts.”

This week, Taiwan’s defense ministry said China had launched its largest regional naval deployment in decades as it prepares for expected military exercises after angering Beijing by Lai, who has made unofficial visits to Hawaii and the US territory of Guam.

Beijing has not announced military drills or acknowledged the large-scale deployment cited by Taipei. US officials said China’s regional naval deployments are increased but consistent with other major exercises in the past.

Under pressure

But one thing is certain: Trump is less of a fan of Taiwan than Joe Biden. The outgoing president has repeatedly said the US would be willing to intervene militarily if the Chinese attacked the island, before the White House retracted his remarks.

The US has long been governed by a policy of “strategic ambiguity” about exactly how it would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Trump, however, has taken this ambiguity to another level.

Asked by the Wall Street Journal if he would use military force against a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, Trump said he would not go to that point because Chinese President Xi Jinping respects him and knows he is “crazy.” Instead, he said he would impose tariffs of 150% to 200% on Beijing.

In an October episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast, Trump attacked America’s longtime friend, saying Taiwan “doesn’t pay us protection money, you know?”

Taiwan’s mutual defense treaty with Washington ended in 1979 along with formal diplomatic relations. Unlike South Korea and Japan, it does not pay for US military forces to be based on its soil. Despite this, the US is the island’s biggest arms dealer.

Ivan Kanapathy, the White House National Security Council’s former deputy senior director for Asia who served in the Trump and Biden administrations, told CNN that Trump’s remarks are a sign that Taipei will have to “dramatically increase spending on American weapons and education, just as he did during the first Trump administration.”

“The national security interests of the US and Taiwan overlap significantly,” Kanapathy said. “But the US cannot want to help Taiwan any more than Taiwan wants to help itself. That’s the line.”

Taiwan has long purchased weapons and military equipment from the US. There is currently a military equipment backlog of over $20 billion. dollars ordered by Taiwan and still awaiting delivery. It has also been increasing its defense budget over the years.

This year, Taiwan’s government proposed a record military budget equivalent to about 2.5 percent of the island’s GDP, far short of the 10 percent target Trump said Taiwan must commit to.

A significant increase in defense spending, however, could be politically difficult for Taiwan’s president, as his party lacks a majority in the legislature. And 10% would make Taiwan among the world’s top spenders, three times what the US spends on its military as a percentage of GDP.

Semiconductor giant

Trump has also repeatedly accused Taiwan of “stealing” America’s semiconductor business and has proposed imposing tariffs on Taiwan’s crucial chip exports, which are used to power a range of modern technologies, from smartphones to artificial intelligence applications.

While experts have dismissed Trump’s remarks, saying Taiwan has grown its own semiconductor industry organically through hard work and investment, the remarks have raised jitters that Taiwan will have to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the U.S. faster pace.

Such a move could affect the island’s economic security and dismantle the very “shield” that some say helps protect Taiwan from Beijing’s threat of invasion.

Kristy Hsu, director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center at the Chung-hua Economic Research Institute, told CNN that while the tariffs on Taiwan’s chip exports would not have a huge impact, potential policy changes could significantly hurt the industry.

“If Trump is going to do something against the chip supply chain, including tighter export controls, that could have a big impact on Taiwan,” she said, referring to restrictions on which countries or companies chip suppliers can sell to. of Taiwan.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the US had ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, to stop shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers. TSMC makes 90% of the world’s most advanced chips.

The move came after the discovery of TSMC-made chips allegedly found in devices made by Huawei, a Chinese telecom giant that was sanctioned by the US in 2019. TSMC said it has not supplied chips to Huawei as of September 2020, but continues to supply other Chinese customers, raising concerns that Huawei may still have access to them the chips through other Chinese companies.

In a statement, TSMC said it does not comment on “market rumors,” adding that it is “committed to complying with all applicable rules and regulations, including export controls.”

Analysts say increasing outreach and education efforts will be key for Taiwan’s chip businesses to mitigate risks as Trump begins his second term.

“For Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, they have a lot of work to do,” a former senior Commerce Department official who served under the first Trump administration told CNN. “They really need to look in the mirror and say we need to do a better job of explaining to Americans why we are a reliable partner, why our technology is superior to China and why you can rely on us.”