Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the German parliament on Monday, a defeat that effectively ended the government he has led since 2021, paving the way for an election early next year.

The collapse of the government just nine months before elections were scheduled was a major political moment for Germany, as the country will go to snap elections for the fourth time in the 75 years since the modern state was founded. The development reflects a new era of volatile politics in a country known for durable consensus-based coalitions.

German MPs voted to dissolve the existing government by 394 votes to 207, with 116 abstentions.

The confidence vote, in the same month that the French government fell, deepens the leadership crisis in Europe at a time of growing economic and security challenges. The war in Ukraine has reached a critical moment. President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office in the United States in January. And now, Europe’s largest economy is in the hands of a caretaker government.

Solz had no choice but to seek a vote of confidence after his three-party coalition split in November, ending months of infighting and leaving him without a parliamentary majority to pass laws or the budget.

But the political uncertainty can last for months. The election is due to be held on February 23, but even if, as expected, his party does not finish first, Soltz will remain in his post as caretaker chancellor weeks after. He will only step down after a new coalition is formed, which likely won’t happen until April or May.

Seven parties will take part in the parliamentary elections with a realistic chance of winning seats, including some of the political extremes, with the far right in particular expected to take a large share, according to opinion polls.

The election campaign is expected to be dominated by many issues that have plagued Europe in recent years. The political debate in Germany and France, traditionally the two most influential countries in the European Union, is dominated by issues related to revitalizing the economy, tackling growing social differences, reducing voter concerns about immigration, but also in support of national defense.

Both Germany and France and the rest of the EU share the same concerns about Russia, where President Vladimir Putin has escalated threats to use nuclear weapons amid Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

At the same time, concerns have intensified about the economic relationship with China, which has become a huge competitor for many of the EU’s most important industries, while it has not become the consumer market for European products that European leaders had long envisioned.

Europe is also preparing for the start of a new presidential term of Trump, who has threatened a trade war while hinting that he is considering withdrawing the US from NATO, which has guaranteed Europe’s security for 75 years.

The combination of challenges has raised political concerns. French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday appointed his fourth prime minister in a year and is under increasing pressure to resign. Macron has vowed to stay in office and try to mend the deep rifts in his government over the 2025 budget.

Olaf Solz’s government has faced similar fiscal challenges, along with growing concerns about how to rebuild the German military in the face of the Russian threat and Trump’s criticism of NATO.

The timing is inappropriate for Germany to plunge into a grueling election campaign that will lead to government paralysis until a new government takes office.

“The timing is absolutely wrong for the EU – basically, these multiple crises are hitting the EU at the worst possible time, because the bloc’s ‘engine’ is busy with internal problems,” said Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, referring to in Germany and France.

The war in Ukraine and the need to bolster the German military – and the cost – will be among the major issues likely to dominate the election campaign, along with the crippled economy, failing infrastructure, immigration and the rise of political fringes.

Way back in the polls, Solz plans to emphasize the care with which he supplied arms to Ukraine.

Under Scholz, Germany became Ukraine’s largest European arms supplier, according to a ranking by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research organization in Germany. The German Chancellor, however, prefers to highlight his decision not to export the Taurus long-range missile system. Many in Berlin saw the chancellor’s phone call with Putin in November as a way to woo those voters worried about Germany’s passive involvement in the war.

During his first election speech last month, Solz criticized his main rival, Friedrich Merz, head of the conservative Christian Democratic Union party, accusing him of provoking Russia by saying he would provide Kiev with more military aid if Russian forces continued to bomb civilian infrastructure.

“I can only say: Be careful! You shouldn’t play Russian roulette with Germany’s security,” Scholz said.

The strategy seems to be working. Since the end of the three-party coalition, Solz’s personal approval ratings have risen somewhat. But his party is still on around 17%, about half of what the Conservatives are projected to win.

Olaf Solz will have to fight hard to convince voters to give him another chance. For now, Mertz is widely expected to be the next chancellor, given his party’s strong lead in the polls.

The three other main parties are also headed by well-known politicians, two of whom held important positions in government: Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats, whose feud with the chancellor helped hasten the collapse of the coalition, and Robert Hambeck, the finance minister and lead candidate of the left-wing Greens.

But in Germany’s fractured political landscape, no party is likely to win an outright majority, leading to potentially difficult negotiations to build a coalition more functional and resilient than the one that failed.

This necessity probably means that rivals cannot polarize the political climate in the run-up to elections because they are all potential coalition partners.

All mainstream parties pledged not to cooperate with the far-right Alternative for Germany. Despite everything, the AfD gathers around 18% while continuing its upward trajectory. In regional elections in September, both the AfD and the far-left party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, performed best.

But given the results, many political analysts predict a return of the center’s grand coalition between the conservative CDU and the progressive Social Democratic Party, which has governed Germany for 12 of the past 20 years.