Donald Trump’s second term in the White House begins well for China. The new US president has so far avoided being threatened to impose high duties in China, he said from the Davos World Economic Forum that The two countries could have ‘very good relations’ And he allegedly expressed his intention to visit the Chinese capital in the coming months.

Trump also suspended the law for 75 days prohibiting the operation of the Chinese ownership of Tiktok and implied that it would try to abolish the law that obliges the company to sell its activities to the US in order to be banned.

All of the above send a strong message that the new president is willing to discuss – and make agreements – with China. At least at present, as CNN notes in its analysis.

This is a positive development for Beijing, which is preparing for a hectic period in US-China relations, as Trump has “recruited” to his cabinet quite a bit ‘Hawks’ asking for a tougher attitude towards Beijing and has threatened to impose high duties on Chinese products imported by the US.

“China realizes that it has an opportunity to negotiate with Trump,” said political commentator Liu Dongsu at Hong Kong’s City University. “And a better relationship between the US and China is more important to China than for the United States … so China is willing to pursue it, he adds.

The stake is high for Beijingas a trade war, such as during Trump’s previous term, will be affected by the exports of the Chinese economy in a difficult time. And China’s leaders want to take advantage of the opportunity to soften Trump’s hard attitude.

Chinese President Si spoke of a “new beginning” in the US-China relations during his telephone communication with Trump before his swearing-in and sent Vice President Han Zeng to Washington to attend his swearing-in ceremony. Zeng is the senior Chinese official who has ever attended such an event, which marks the importance of China to improving relationships with Washington.

Meanwhile, in the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, China Ding Suseying said that Beij It concerns the relationship between the two largest economies on the planet.

However, China’s policy makers They do not have hallucinations How fast the climate in the US and China relations could change – and they are carefully evaluating how they can take advantage of the present positive context to negotiate with the “meter” of the kind in the coming months.

The Damot Sword of Dutters

The current good climate, however, remains in the shadow of the “first phase” trade agreement that the two countries had entered into during Trump’s first term.

The 2020 agreement ended the trade war of the two countries, in which Trump increased or imposed duties on Chinese products imported into the US worth hundreds of billions of dollars – a move that then claimed to balance competitiveness with China and which It is largely in force to date.

Today, this agreement, which analysts say that it has never fully implemented Beijing, has returned to the Washington microscope as part of a broader US and China economic and commercial relations requested by a decree signed at first. his day in the presidency.

OR re -evaluation of agreement It will determine whether the White House will impose duties on China, but the finding is expected to take months. Thus, Beijing has time to build a new relationship with Trump, perhaps pushing for a precautionary agreement to avoid stricter economic consequences

In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Trump described the duties as a “huge pressure” lever in China, but added that “I would prefer not to use it” and that the two countries could reach a trade agreement . However, it remains unclear whether Trump will tighten the controls to exports of sensitive technologies implemented by Joe Biden’s predecessor.

“China has realized that he can negotiate with Trump, but he is different, a young Trump – and the commitments of the previous time may not satisfy his new aspirations,” notes international relations analyst St. Dingley. This time, instead of being “dragged” into a trade war by Trump, Beijing can better “smile, to maintain his mentality and start discussing with him“, Adds Sen.

The imposition of 10% duties on Chinese products imported by the US could be implemented as early as next month as retaliation for the role played by China, according to Trump, in the Fentanyl crisis facing America.

However, this height of duties is far from the 60% duties with which Trump had threatened – and China’s foreign policy analysts consider Beijing to see these threats as levers he could use to calm down Trump.

For example, Chinese officials could fulfill more than the terms provided for by the “First Phase” agreement and in addition to open the huge Chinese market in foreign businesses. They could also take additional measures to limit the exports of chemicals used to produce fentanyl.

The choice of one approach to dialogue and cooperation Instead of adopting “hard lines”, experts in the relevant discussions that take place inside China also prefer.

Jia Qingguo, a former dean of the High Valid School of International Studies at the University of Beijing, said it firmly in a recent interview with the Yicai state financial form. “Instead of adopting a total veto on all US proposals,” China should “analyze what issues need to be addressed and what can be cooperated on the basis of our interests,” he said.

If Trump actually visits Beijing in the coming months, which according to sources near the US president note that he is thinking of doing it, he will also offer Beijing a good opportunity to attract him.

‘We must not be complacent’

However, there are limits to how much China’s “jokes” can do – but also skepticism about how feasible a collaboration with him is. Si pointed out this in his telephone conversation with Trump before his swearing -in.

‘The important one is to respect each other’s interests“, Referring to the Chinese leader, referring to Taiwan, the self -governing democracy that Beijing claims and is committed to bringing under control as an issue that the US must face wisely. On the other hand, he added there is a “wide field of cooperation” in other areas, such as economic ties.

Inside China there is also a lot of talk about how the Chinese government should react if the US president begins to increase tariffs on Chinese products – and shows that Beijing is preparing for a possible “battle”.

Beijing struggled at the end of last year export control regulationsexpanding its ability to limit the exports of so -called dual -use goods. It has also limited exports of some critical minerals and related technologies based on countries to build a wide range of products, such as military systems and semiconductor – another tool that China could use to avoid US duties.

Meanwhile, any agreement between Beijing and Washington cannot be disengaged by the myriad -like counter that the two countries have on a number of issues, such as the protection of human rights in China, the competition for technological and military sovereignty and the balance of forces in Asia.

China is unlikely to stop the actions that trigger these tensions – such as the effort to modernize and strengthen its army and the growing aggression for territorial claims in the sea of ​​southern China and Taiwan. At the same time, many US MPs, unlike Trump, are not willing to work with the country that see as a major threat to America’s role as the only superpower.

Thursday, for example, MPs filed a bipartisan bill which negates from China the preferential regime of the US Commercial Partner, provides for the gradual imposition of duties and terminates tariff exemptions for Chinese low -value imports.

China leaders are also called upon to ensure that they remain strong interlocutors with the US, both inside and in the countries of the world, where Beijing aspires to play a leading role.

Thus, although Chinese officials welcome Trump’s less militant stance in the first week of his presidency, they remain cautious about how much this “honeymoon” will take.

“This does not mean that the China-US relationship has become easier, just US approach has changed“, Notes Jin Canrong, Deputy Director of the China-US Research Center at Renmin University in Beijing, in a video published in his social networking platform Weibo. “We must not be complacent … The US is still considering China a strategic opponent.”