It is a peculiarity of German policy: Although he is the big favorite to become the next Chancellor, the Friedrich Mertz He is expected to live a nervous electoral night, according to a Politico analysis.

In order to be able to hold on to power after the Elections of 23 Februaryshould be able to form a coalition with which he can work together. To do this, the smaller parties of its Germanyand some suffer so much that they will not even be represented in parliament.

Mertz was quite honest about the ideal scenario: the Center -Right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) must go “so well in the elections” that “only one coalition partner needs, certainly not two,” he said last year.

Even better, he could choose with which partner of the Single Coalition he will work with so that he can turn them against each other.

“I want to ensure strategically that we have at least two options – and we only need one,” he said in a discussion on Sunday. As for what options, he added: “Possibly the Social Democrats, possibly the Greens.”

Of course, politics rarely evolve so clearly.

First of all, although the CDU and his brother Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have decent performance in polls, may not go as well as they would like.

“The big question is why the CDU does not gain more support than it has today?” Robert Grimm, director of political and social research by Ipsos polling company in Germany, said. “30% is not much for the CDU.”

Mertz’s course depends not only on his party’s performance, not even on the far -right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is today second in polls, but has been ruled out as a coalition partner by the country’s dominant parties. On the contrary, it depends on how many smaller parties will win seats in Bundestag.

The conclusion: The fewer parties stand up, the better for Mertz’s prospect.

It follows a look at the possible fate of Germany’s smaller parties and how this could determine the fate of the next Chancellor.

In addition to Mertz’s CDU, AfD, SPD and Greens, three parties fight for their political life. The far -left Die Linke, the Left Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) and the Liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which entered the government after the 2021 elections, all rates close to 5%, the limit they need to reach for secure seats in the 630 seats.

If they do not, their available seats will be distributed proportionally among the parties that will win representation – reinforcing a future government coalition.

In other words, a few percentage points could make the difference.

Therefore, on the election night, Mertz’s team not only needs a CDU/CSU victory, but I will also hope that the parties Die Linke, BSW and FDP will suffer devastating losses.

Decorative constituencies

On the election day, the Germans have the opportunity to vote twice: one for a party and one for a candidate in their constituency, who can earn a direct ticket to Bundestag if he is the first in votes in the area.

Both votes offer the parties a way out in Bundestag. If a party has at least 5% of the votes of the parties, it will be in whatever happens. If it does not reach 5%, but earns three direct commands, it wins the right to a piece of seats (proportionally to its percentage, anyway). This window saved Die Linke in 2021, when it fell by 0.1 percentage point below the 5%threshold, but passed thanks to the three seats in the constituencies.

Despite historical successes, especially in former East Germany, Die Linke’s popularity has declined in recent elections. Today, the far -left party, a successor to the Socialist Single Party that ruled the former East Germany, is moving around 5%, which means that its survival could depend on conquering three seats in constituencies this time.

But this is a difficult mission. In 2021, Die Linke managed to win seats in constituencies thanks to a huge number of separate votes. Supporters of the Greens and the Socialists gave their first votes to candidates on the left because they wanted to enhance the chances of a coalition that would include Die Linke.

Now, however, “it’s just the opposite,” said Joachim Behnke, an electoral expert and a professor of political science at Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen. This time, the voters of the Greens and the Social Democrats who will share their votes between the two parties “will harm their own party’s chances of being a CDU coalition partner”.

Yougov’s prediction on the results of the first vote seems to confirm this analysis, indicating that Die Linke could win only two of the three constituencies, not enough to unlock representation.

Also, Yougov’s analysis also shows that Die Linke could lose Berlin Lichtenberg, a seat that the party has firmly possessed since its founding in 2007, from the far -right AfD. While Die Linke is a candidate for a series of seats on the razor cut, it will be a difficult night.

Divide and reign

In a development that could help Mertz, Die Linke’s electorate has “bleed” somewhat to the left -wing alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), which may find it difficult to reach the electoral limit.

This is the first time that the Russian -friendly party, which was separated from Die Linke in late 2023, is entering the Budestag seats.

The alliance emerged in 2024, winning six seats in the European Parliament.

But according to Yougov’s prediction, none of his candidates are expected to come to the first or at least in second place in any of the 299 German constituencies, and recent polls show BSW at 5% – which means they are dangerous Near not being able to get into Bundestag.

“It’s not a clear trend, but the BSW is definitely weaker than we expected,” Behnke said.

Impatient friends

From a political point of view, Christian Lindner’s Liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) could be Mertz’s favorite coalition partner, if he was strong enough to achieve a majority. Unfortunately, however, the prospects of the party are ominous and so the knives came out.

In the previous elections, the CDU/CSU and the FDP worked to encourage voters to share their votes. But this time, Lindner and Mertz made more and more bitter efforts to gather the undecided conservative voters. An Ipsos survey shows that the Liberals could lose a significant proportion of their former voters from Mertz’s conservatives, giving him the coalition he wants.

Mertz warned that the FDP vote will eventually be a lost vote. If the party receives 4% of the vote, he said, this “4% is too much for the FDP and 4% less” for the CDU/CSU.

Things look optimistic about Mertz.

Like the newly formed BSW, the liberals do not have real contenders for an immediate order. The last time they won the first vote in a constituency was in 1990, and that constituency no longer exists.

The FDP aims at party votes. Historically it has managed to have widespread support from all over the country and during its successful course, especially in the southwestern region, the party garnered 11.4% of the vote.

But since the Chancellor Altf Saltz “Fulfilled” Lindner, creating the conditions for early elections, the FDP is around 4%. It is now in danger of a devastating fall by a member of the government coalition in the Bundestag absent.