Donald Trump’s return to the White House was accompanied by many unwanted surprises for Beijing. But as the US president seeks to end the war in Ukraine, overturning decades of US policy on Russia, Chinese leader Xi Jing can also see a positive side.

Xi spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Monday, on the third anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, confirming the close ties of the two countries and calling Moscow “real friend” and “good neighbor”, according to the Chinese government.

Communication took place amid speculations that Trump’s dramatic change of policy aimed at boosting relationships with Moscow could harm Beijing.

However, experts in Washington and Beijing report that the Chinese leadership is facing geopolitical changes with mixed emotions, as the end of the war in Ukraine through diplomacy is welcome.

“Communication between the two leaders seems to be aiming to deny speculations that Russia would downgrade its relations with China as part of a large deal for Ukraine,” said Joseph Torigian, a Russian-China relations expert in American. University in Washington. “But there are reasons to believe that China is not worried so much.”

“An arrangement of Russia’s war would be a positive result for China,” he added. “The war has put Beijing in a difficult position, and a Russian” victory “would be a defeat for the West.”

Beijing has provided critical economic and political support in Russia since the start of the war in 2022, in the context of “unconditional cooperation” between the two countries. Putin and Si have spoken several times after Trump’s swearing -in and have tried to present their alliance as an alternative to the world that the US leads.

While Russia has undergone heavy western sanctions and international isolation after the invasion, Beijing has helped Moscow by providing it with electronic components it needs on the battlefield, as well as a critical market for Russian oil sales. In fact, trade between China and Russia increased by almost 70% from 2021 to 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

Trump’s return to the White House has changed this isolation. In the last month, Trump has marked that he wants to work with Putin, starting last week talks between the US and Russia, falsely accusing Ukraine of starting the conflict and calling Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski.

This sudden overthrow of US-Russia relationships has led some experts to wonder if Trump attempts to implement a “Nixon reverse strategy”. As President Richard Nixon in 1972 approached China to weaken the Soviet Union, so Trump could attempt to isolate China through closer relations with Moscow.

But experts in Russian-Chinese relations consider this scenario unlikely.

Chui Hongjian, a specialist in European studies at the University of Beijing Studies, said that although US involvement with Russia “exerts some pressure on China”, it would not harm long -term confidence and common interests.

“China and Russia have built a more comprehensive cooperation that extends beyond security, in economic growth,” Chui noted. “They are not the same countries that were once. As a Greek philosopher had said, “no one enters the same river twice.”

Beijing supported this argument this week. The Global Times, a newspaper associated with the Chinese Communist Party, published an article rejecting the idea that Beij .

In Monday’s telephone conversation, Si said that bilateral relations could not be influenced by “third parties”, an obvious hint to Washington, while Putin informed Si about recent Russia-US contacts, according to the Chinese announcement.

The end of the war in Ukraine can have a positive impact on China.

The war has put Beijing in a difficult position, said Lee Heng, a professor of political science at the University of Hong Kong. China’s support for Russia has been a point of friction in its relations with Europe and the US, while Chinese companies have been sanctions from Washington due to their support for the Russian war machine.

Beijing can also worry that the ending of the conflict in Ukraine could let Trump focus more on competition with China.
At the same time, ongoing tensions with the US make it even more necessary for China to maintain a strong alliance with Russia.

“Beijing is preparing for long-term competition, possibly even a conflict, with the US,” said Philip Ivanov, a Russian-Chinese expert. “As long as the US-China relationship is tense, it is good for Beijing to have Russia on its side.”

Katrina Northrop and Vic Chiang are authors of The Washington Post