Bloomberg comments on the way in which the dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, try to instrumentalize immigration in a huge hybrid war, in an extensive analysis published a few days ago.
As Andrea Cluth points out in his article, it is clear that Putin in recent years had used the “hybrid war” in the … silent war he had waged in Crimea. This time Lukashenko, with the “blessings” of the powerful man of Russia, uses people as weapons and sends migrants to the Polish border.
The same analysis points out that for several months now, Lukashenko has been receiving migrants from many parts of the Middle East, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and SYRIZA, in his country and … opened a clear path to countries such as Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, which are permanent members of the European Union and NATO. The refugees and migrants found refuge in dark forests and eventually found themselves trapped between the Belarusian army and the Polish army, trying to keep them stable in the same place. But as winter approaches, these people may die from the cold.
According to the same analysis, the traffickers managed to get several of them to the European Union, either on foot or by car, in their preferred country which seems to be Germany. The country’s authorities have so far registered more than 6,000 migrants who have followed this route in the last three weeks. Officials from Germany have said in recent days that border controls are expected to be tightened.
For their part, the Poles began erecting barbed wire to build a fence and walls that appear to be permanent on their border with Belarus, and this week, according to country sources, the number of troops in the area increased. at 10,000. By provoking these reactions, Lukashenko is trying to launch a cynical campaign and create controversy among EU members over how to manage the situation. All this, of course, at a time when the “Old Continent” remains seriously “injured” by the huge refugee crisis of 2015, as from then until today it seems that its members have not managed to radically change immigration policy.
There is another unforeseen factor in the above that is noted in the analysis of the Bloomberg columnist: that of terrorism. As the Latvian Foreign Minister and several other officials of the country have recently pointed out, migrant traffickers are using the unguarded roads to the EU to pass even citizens of Russia and Belarus who could well become terrorists. Most likely, these individuals are future “inactive” spies who can take on many different roles at the borders of each country.
Putin-Lukashenko co-operation appears to be quite good as military forces have already been deployed in several parts of the EU-NATO border. The two men seem to need each other in order to implement their policies in the game of international chessboard and in the “hybrid war” that is in full swing.
Obviously the idiosyncratic war is not going to stop there. It is likely to extend to manipulating Russian gas supplies to Europe to exacerbate the current energy crisis. At the same time, other authoritarian leaders, such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have also sought to blackmail Europe into using refugees.
The Bloomberg analysis concludes that as an obvious first step, the EU should now extend sanctions to all airlines and other operators – in Belarus or elsewhere – involved in this trafficking. In addition, regardless of what happens in the internal conflict between Brussels and Warsaw, the entire “Old Continent” bloc must show solidarity with Poland and the Baltic states.
At the same time, other European nations, including those that have downplayed Putin’s Russia’s threat in the past, must also reconsider their overall strategic position in the light of such tactics. In the geopolitical conflict between Western Europe and Moscow, one side clearly seems to value human life while the other does not. The question is whether this asymmetry, now or in the future, is expected to leave Europe vulnerable.
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