Four weeks after the arrest of Turkey’s opposition leader – the mayor of Constantinople Ekrem Imamoglu – a rare wave of unity has scanned the streets as protesters from much of the political spectrum require early elections.

Now, the question about the opposition is how to turn the streets into the streets into enough political capital to mobilize voters. Turkey’s subsequent scheduled presidential elections are in May 2028 and the opposition is divided, as it consists of a alloy of pro -Kurdish, center, leftist and nationalist groups, which are in conflict with each other.

However, the recently activated, central and secular folk Republican Party of Imoglou, or CHP, wants to build a stable alliance to maintain its momentum. A recent poll by Sonar, a Turkish polling company, shows support for the CHP in about 37 percent, in front of Erdogan’s Islamist, center -right justice and growth or AKP, which has fallen to 30 percent. In the meantime, Erdogan’s far -right ally, the Nationalist or MHP party also loses ground.

“The coalition created by Erdogan and who kept him in power collapses,” said Gonul Tol, a senior associate at the Middle East Institute. “The main question here is what the pro -Kurdish party will do.”

The Kurds are about one -fifth of Turkey’s population, and Imamoglu is believed to have succeeded in gaining broad Kurdish support much more than Erdogan. “The problems faced by an 18-year-old Kurdish student at the university do not differ from those of an 18-year-old in the Black Sea,” in the heart of the pro-Erdoganists, said Gokhan Gunaydin, a member of the CHP. Many Kurds accuse Erdogan of aggressive government efforts to oust the pro -Kurdish parties from political life, with politicians arrested and elected officials moving away from their duties.
However, Imamoglu’s arrest last month came just three weeks, after Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Labor Party, or PKK, asked his movement to deposit his weapons after a decades.

Erdogan’s government has rejected any proposal for an agreement with Ocalan and the PKK, which has been designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union and the United States. But some in the CHP are worried that the time is not accidental. Members of the pro -Kurdish equality and democracy of the peoples, or DEM, were recently allowed to visit Ocalan in prison and later met with Erdogan for the first time for over a decade.

“The pro -Kurdish party is now in a dilemma: if they strongly support the rest of the opposition, they are in danger of derailing the process of agreement,” said Mort Arslanalp, a political scientist.

For many Kurdish voters and legislators, this dilemma is mitigated by the widespread feeling that they would be willing to support Imoglou in presidential elections, but they are still very suspicious of his party.

The pro -Kurdish demands have long been ignored by Turkey’s main political parties. However, Imamoglou pointed out during his campaigns for the municipality his willingness to recognize the language and identity of the Kurds, Arslanalp said.

For Imamoglou, his approach was translated into electoral success. While Turkey’s Kurdish population was historically concentrated in the southeast, many Kurds now live in Constantinople and other parts of Turkey, which are influential constituencies.

The decision to arrest Imoglou seems to be partly linked to his call to Kurdish voters, members of the CHP say. Turkish officials accuse Imamoglou of working with the pro -Kurdish party and of helping PKK during his successful re -election campaign last year.

His party is much less popular in the Kurds. As the founding party of modern Turkey, the CHP is regarded by many Kurds as responsible for decades of marginalization and repression of their national minority. Imamoglu’s party still has a nationalist wing that opposes the concessions to the PKK.

Saruhan Oluc, a senior MP of the pro -Kurdish party, said that the CHP’s efforts to resolve the Kurdish issue were inadequate.

“If the government says a phrase on the Kurdish issue and its democratic solution, the opposition should say three proposals,” he said. “At the moment, they only say half a sentence.”

Oluc said that for his party, the priority remains the “finding peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue”.

But some in the party warn that there is no certainty that recent progress can be maintained – there is still no roadmap to disarm the PKK fighters and Turkish military operations against the team continue.

If Turkey becomes “a complete empire, the Kurds will suffer more than anyone else,” warned Cengiz Candar, a member of the pro -Kurdish party.

“If the elections lost their momentum,” Erdogan said, said political scientist Arslanalp, the Kurds “would lose their main lever”.

Erdogan’s challenges are increasing

Supporters of a broad opposition alliance argue that it is time to defeat Erdogan.

During the more than two decades in his power, Erdogan was primarily favored by an alliance with Conservatives of Religion and Nationalists – who applaud him as a defender of their worldviews – and working class voters who benefit from social welfare programs.

However, in the midst of inflation and the weakening of the economy in recent years, Erdogan’s alliance has begun to have cracks. Erdogan, who often proclaimed that “anyone who rules Constantinople ruled Turkey”, suffered casualties in 2019 when Imamoglu first defeated AKP’s candidate in the election track for Constantinople.

Two years ago, a broad opposition alliance came close to defeating Erdogan in the presidential election. If the opposition had placed Imamoglou instead of the anti -reviewed Kemal Kilicdaroglu, then the Chp leader, he could have won, analysts say.

Growing up by a conservative family on the Black Sea coast, Imamoglou even appeals to religious conservatives, who traditionally struggles to win.

“Unlike Erdogan, who has a base of almost exclusively right -wing voters, Imoglou’s base is right, left and central,” said Sonter Tsagaptai, director of the Turkish research program at Washington Institute. “That is why it is a deadly threat to Erdogan.”

However, Erdogan may have underestimated the mobilization of the opposition in the wake of Imamoglou’s arrest, Chp members say. Ozgur Ozel, the Chp leader in 2023, has surprised many as he has exploited the moment, spending dynamic speeches and maintaining dynamics throughout Turkey.

“The CHP is Turkey’s largest family,” Ozel told a meeting last week, addressing thousands of supporters in Ankara, as if he were already a candidate for the presidency.

For Fulya Eren, a 47 -year -old teacher, it was the first time she participated in a CHP event after leaving the party with frustration years ago. Many young members believed that the party had become very comfortable with the status quo and was very involved in internal conflicts to challenge Erdogan.

While Eren said it was encouraged by the mobilization and apparent unity of the party in recent weeks, its hopes are still mainly based on a man.

“Imamoglu is a real leader,” he said. “I don’t think it will disappoint us.”